15 Vista Gardens Trl #207 · Vero Beach South, FL 32962

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Townhouse public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $149k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming soon. .. .

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $159k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.53%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Vista Gardens Trl #206	0.00mi	2/2.0	962 (-4%)	1mo	$140,000	$146	93
23 Vista Gardens Trl #102	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,000 (0%)	2mo	$149,000	$149	88
111 Spring Lake Ct #207	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$124,000	$124	86
35 Vista Gardens Trl #106	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$107,500	$108	84
27 Vista Gardens Trl #102	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	2mo	$91,000	$91	83
94 Spring Lake Dr #106	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	2mo	$176,000	$176	79
73 Royal Oak Ct #206	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$110,000	$110	79
81 Crooked Tree Ln #107	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	2mo	$178,000	$178	78
68 Royal Oak Ct #201	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$162,000	$162	78
89 Crooked Tree Ln #106	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	2mo	$89,000	$89	72
56 Woodland Dr #201	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	2mo	$165,000	$165	70
544 7th Sq SW #102	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,127 (+13%)	2mo	$215,000	$191	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,049
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $32,621
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32962

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $892/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,318

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $414	-5% $369	+0% $324	+5% $279	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $256	+0% $324	+5% $392	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $365	base $324	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Vista Gardens Trl #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,500	$2.00	22d	1	0.20mi
102 Royal Oak Dr #105 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,550	$2.07	22d	1	0.24mi
43 Vista Gardens Trl #205 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,450	$1.93	22d	1	0.26mi
103 Royal Oak Dr #106 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	14d	1	0.27mi
26 Vista Gardens Trl #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,350	$1.80	22d	1	0.30mi
34 Vista Gardens Trl #107 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	22d	1	0.34mi
28 Vista Gardens Trl #102 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	22d	1	0.34mi
36 Vista Gardens Trl #201 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,390	$1.39	22d	1	0.35mi
35 Vista Gardens Trl #205 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	934	$1,400	$1.50	22d	1	0.36mi
95 Spring Lake Dr #103 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,600	$2.13	22d	1	0.37mi
80 Crooked Tree Ln #106 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	14d	1	0.37mi
11 Vista Gardens Trl #106 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	22d	1	0.40mi
4 Vista Gardens Trl #207 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	14d	1	0.40mi
85 Crooked Tree Ln #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,450	$1.93	22d	1	0.43mi
86 Crooked Tree Ln #102 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.45mi
65 Woodland Dr #207 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	22d	1	0.50mi
528 7th Sq #102 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1095	$3,000	$2.74	22d	1	0.53mi
50 Woodland Dr #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,350	$1.80	14d	1	0.58mi
58 Woodland Dr #206 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	14d	1	0.59mi
340 E Waverly Pl Unit 6D Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	1200	$1,000	$0.83	22d	1	0.77mi
855 6th Ave Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$1,950	$1.63	14d	1	0.79mi
400 E Waverly Pl Unit 2b Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$1,900	$1.62	22d	1	0.79mi
37 Pine Arbor Ln #101 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	14d	1	0.84mi
36 Pine Arbor Ln Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	22d	2	0.84mi
161 6th Ct SW Vero Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1298	$1,590	$1.22	14d	1	0.84mi
1041 Normandie Way Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1178	$2,100	$1.78	14d	1	0.85mi
5 Vista Palm Ln #203 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,500	$2.00	14d	1	0.87mi
263 Provence Pl Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1364	$3,500	$2.57	22d	1	0.90mi
1135 3rd Ave #101 Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	906	$1,800	$1.99	22d	1	0.96mi
1166 6th Ave Unit D Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	22d	1	0.96mi
1166 6th Ave Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,200	$1.93	14d	1	0.96mi
28 Pine Arbor Ln #103 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,200	$1.60	22d	1	1.01mi
1170 6th Ave Unit 2D Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$1,800	$1.54	14d	1	1.01mi
355 6th Rd SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	22d	1	1.03mi
16 Vista Palm Ln Vero Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	22d	2	1.08mi
19 Pine Arbor Ln #105 Vero Beach, FL	1.0	1.5	750	$1,800	$2.40	22d	1	1.08mi
1200 6th Dr Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	14d	1	1.18mi
734 5th Pl SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	22d	1	1.27mi
1136 9th Sq Unit 1467671P Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$4,165	$2.98	22d	1	1.28mi
516 13th Pl Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,800	$1.63	22d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    historical $159,000
18. 2012-03-09
    soldstatus $58,000
19. 2002-04-18
    soldstatus $75,000
20. 1981-04-01
    soldstatus $62,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 48.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$892
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $1,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$336
• After-tax cash flow: $3,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vero Beach South, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,522
• Household income: $66,664
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.13%
• Current HPI: 333.3274
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+154.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Coming Soon $159,000 RAIRCMLS
• 2012-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2002-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1981-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $892 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.