Carteret Plan · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 991 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Pine Ridge at Crestwood a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand new, 2026 2 bed, 2 bath home for sale 991.32 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in Whiting, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, vinyl floors, high ceilings, natural light, and recess lighting . The eat in kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with en-suite features walk-in sh

Key facts

• Vinyl floors
• Recess lighting
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL FLOORS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• RECESS LIGHTING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $120,000

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan; Carteret model
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 991

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (total)
• Interior features: Plan: Carteret

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 5.9% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.80%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,548
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $47,875
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $553	-5% $512	+0% $471	+5% $429	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $341	-5% $406	+0% $471	+5% $536	+10% $601
Rate	-1.0pp $531	-0.5pp $501	base $471	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	4d	1	0.44mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $120,000 Active 1365-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$953
• After-tax cash flow: $4,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2026 manufactured home in a 55+ community is in good condition with a fresh paint job and minimal maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look newer
• Both Appliance maintenance — Ensures appliances are in good working condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look newer ↑
• Both Appliance maintenance — Ensures appliances are in good working condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B