1900 S Lincoln Unit F2 · Santa Maria, CA 93458

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2006 553 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity to own your home in a Family Park, close to Restaurants, shopping, and schools. Corner Lot home with only 1 Neighbor on one side. 2006 built with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Close to schools
• Close to shopping

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is level with the street; Lot and living area information from assessor/public records; Mobile dimensions approximately 118 ft by 48 ft
• HOA & community: Land lease community with monthly land lease; Monthly land lease: $750; Manager approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Located in El Capitan Village park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story manufactured home (mobile home remains); Entry level: 1
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Sidewalks and street lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing range
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub(s)
• Interior features: Side entry; Entry at ground level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.5% in Santa Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#202 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Maria-Bonita (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,023 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,159/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 2583% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.06%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,936
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1701 S Thornburg St #108	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+4%)	4mo	$108,000	$90	69
1701 S Thornburg St #96	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-3%)	22mo	$132,000	$118	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $43,927
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $131,425
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93458

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,064/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $1,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,581

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1720 S Depot St Santa Maria, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1308	$2,867	$2.19	14d	5	0.42mi
800 W Battles Rd Santa Maria, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1104	$3,258	$2.95	14d	6	0.60mi
983 Dan Blough Dr Santa Maria, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1017	$3,691	$3.63	14d	45	0.64mi
2299 Carrasco Way Santa Maria, CA	3.0	2.5–3.5	1419	$3,500	$2.47	14d	2	0.75mi
703 Meehan St Santa Maria, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	700	$3,304	$4.72	14d	14	0.79mi
310 E McCoy Ln Santa Maria, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1130	$2,995	$2.65	14d	2	0.85mi
310 W McCoy Ln Santa Maria, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,600	$2.30	14d	1	0.86mi
1735 Biscayne St Santa Maria, CA	3.0	2.0	1257	$3,081	$2.45	14d	9	0.90mi
2460 Rubel Way Santa Maria, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1230	$3,275	$2.66	14d	11	1.30mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $205,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $233,000 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    price $233,000
19. 2026-04-22
    price $233,000 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Opportunity to own your home in a Family Park, close to Restaurants, shopping, and schools. Corner Lot home with only 1 Neighbor on one side. 2006 built with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.

20. 2026-02-13
    listed $238,000 Active
21. 2026-02-09
    listed $238,000 Active 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Opportunity to own your home in a Family Park, close to Restaurants, shopping, and schools. Corner Lot home with only 1 Neighbor on one side. 2006 built with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.

22. 2026-02-05
    historical
23. 2025-09-29
    price $249,000
24. 2025-07-24
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$494/yr (+$41/mo · 46.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,064
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,032
• − Management: −$3,032
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $12,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,953
• After-tax cash flow: $12,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Maria-Bonita
• NCES district ID: 0605580
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,959
• Composite: 29.11/100
• National rank: #11891
• State rank: #1023 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Maria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #6519

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Maria, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 145,655
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 59,148
• Household income: $75,257
• Rent vs Own: 57.1% rent · 42.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2583.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 41% White 8% Asian 4% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 40% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 72% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -422.91%
• Current HPI: 347.9281
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $233,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $233,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $238,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $238,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $249,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $260,000 NSBCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,064 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.