246 Hemlock Ln · Wilkesboro, NC 28654

$235,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1979 0.61 ac lot Est $193k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ON THE BRUSHY MOUNTAINS. LARGE SUNROOM, ONE CAR GARAGE, MASTER ON MAIN FLOOR, PRIVATE WELL, FIREPLACE, LARGE STORAGE/BONUS AREA OVER THE GARAGE, CRAWL SPACE UNDER THE HOUSE IS ALMOST STANDUP FOR LOTS OF STORAGE, STORAGE BUILDING. GUTTER GUARDS.WELL FILTER SYSTEM. TRANE HEAT PUMP 2016

Key facts

• Large sunroom
• Fireplace
• 0.61 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE SUNROOM
• FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (46.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (46.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.3% in Wilkesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#166 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Wilkes County Schools (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilkesboro Elementary School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 370 students, 99% FRL); Wilkes Central High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 752 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Wilkes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wilkes County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $125,976 (46.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,284
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Hemlock Ln	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,214 (+11%)	8mo	$214,900	$177	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $100,828
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $317,983
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28654

• Home prices YoY: 13.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $159,964

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-292	-5% $-358	+0% $-425	+5% $-491	+10% $-558
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-475	+0% $-425	+5% $-375	+10% $-325
Rate	-1.0pp $-306	-0.5pp $-365	base $-425	+0.5pp $-486	+1.0pp $-548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2024-07-17
   soldstatus $235,000 Closed 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ON THE BRUSHY MOUNTAINS. LARGE SUNROOM, ONE CAR GARAGE, MASTER ON MAIN FLOOR, PRIVATE WELL, FIREPLACE, LARGE STORAGE/BONUS AREA OVER THE GARAGE, CRAWL SPACE UNDER THE HOUSE IS ALMOST STANDUP FOR LOTS OF STORAGE, STORAGE BUILDING. GUTTER GUARDS.WELL FILTER SYSTEM. TRANE HEAT PUMP 2016

2. 2024-07-17
   soldstatus $235,000

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ON THE BRUSHY MOUNTAINS. LARGE SUNROOM, ONE CAR GARAGE, MASTER ON MAIN FLOOR, PRIVATE WELL, FIREPLACE, LARGE STORAGE/BONUS AREA OVER THE GARAGE, CRAWL SPACE UNDER THE HOUSE IS ALMOST STANDUP FOR LOTS OF STORAGE, STORAGE BUILDING. GUTTER GUARDS.WELL FILTER SYSTEM. TRANE HEAT PUMP 2016

3. 2024-06-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ON THE BRUSHY MOUNTAINS. LARGE SUNROOM, ONE CAR GARAGE, MASTER ON MAIN FLOOR, PRIVATE WELL, FIREPLACE, LARGE STORAGE/BONUS AREA OVER THE GARAGE, CRAWL SPACE UNDER THE HOUSE IS ALMOST STANDUP FOR LOTS OF STORAGE, STORAGE BUILDING. GUTTER GUARDS.WELL FILTER SYSTEM. TRANE HEAT PUMP 2016

4. 2024-06-04
   status Pending 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ON THE BRUSHY MOUNTAINS. LARGE SUNROOM, ONE CAR GARAGE, MASTER ON MAIN FLOOR, PRIVATE WELL, FIREPLACE, LARGE STORAGE/BONUS AREA OVER THE GARAGE, CRAWL SPACE UNDER THE HOUSE IS ALMOST STANDUP FOR LOTS OF STORAGE, STORAGE BUILDING. GUTTER GUARDS.WELL FILTER SYSTEM. TRANE HEAT PUMP 2016

5. 2024-06-03
   listed $235,000 Active 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ON THE BRUSHY MOUNTAINS. LARGE SUNROOM, ONE CAR GARAGE, MASTER ON MAIN FLOOR, PRIVATE WELL, FIREPLACE, LARGE STORAGE/BONUS AREA OVER THE GARAGE, CRAWL SPACE UNDER THE HOUSE IS ALMOST STANDUP FOR LOTS OF STORAGE, STORAGE BUILDING. GUTTER GUARDS.WELL FILTER SYSTEM. TRANE HEAT PUMP 2016

6. 2024-06-03
   listed $235,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ON THE BRUSHY MOUNTAINS. LARGE SUNROOM, ONE CAR GARAGE, MASTER ON MAIN FLOOR, PRIVATE WELL, FIREPLACE, LARGE STORAGE/BONUS AREA OVER THE GARAGE, CRAWL SPACE UNDER THE HOUSE IS ALMOST STANDUP FOR LOTS OF STORAGE, STORAGE BUILDING. GUTTER GUARDS.WELL FILTER SYSTEM. TRANE HEAT PUMP 2016

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$851/yr (+$71/mo · 79.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$9,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,293
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilkes County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704950
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3017
• State rank: #59 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilkesboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #8892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,412
• Population (ZIP): 3,287

Population outlook (Wilkes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,349 people
• By 2030: 64,411 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 59,800 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 54,770 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 45,211 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 36,956 · -44.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Korean 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilkes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.6) · D 19.9% · R 79.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -59.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.6 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+42.7 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.10%
• Current HPI: 274.1944
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-17 Sold (MLS) $235,000 Triad MLS
• 2024-06-04 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-04 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2024-06-03 Listed $235,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-03 Listed $235,000 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,076 · +107.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.