1405 Maria Ln · Avon, IN 46123

$278,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1977 0.58 ac lot Est $301k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid bones, rare space, and 38 years of careful stewardship - all within walking distance of Avon High School. This all-brick ranch has been lovingly maintained by one owner for nearly four decades, and it shows in the details: the warm wood millwork, the arched passageways, the built-in shelving flanking a floor-to-ceiling brick fireplace. Ready for its next chapter, the home offers a strong foundation for buyers who want to put their stamp on something worth keeping. Three bedrooms and two bathrooms spread across a thoughtful single-level floor plan, with a dedicated laundry room, an attached garage, and a sliding door that opens to a private concrete patio. The primary bedroom includes

Key facts

• Generous lot
• All brick ranch
• Built in shelving

Tags

• ALL BRICK RANCH
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• PRIVATE CONCRETE PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• GENEROUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic system; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Property condition: fixer
• Construction: Brick construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Approximately 0.58-acre lot (1/2–1 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Family room with fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-365/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Avon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#75 in IN, #4,686 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Avon Community School Corporation (suburban): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in IN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,294 units permitted in Hendricks County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hendricks County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $218,652 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,612
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1423 Maria Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-7%)	8mo	$280,000	$189	78
1426 Westwind Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+2%)	5mo	$320,000	$196	77
1243 James Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,719 (+8%)	3mo	$350,000	$204	73
8112 Elsen Rdg	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+5%)	1mo	$315,000	$188	65
8038 Sydney Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,571 (-2%)	1mo	$289,000	$184	61
1576 Rosewood Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+3%)	7mo	$304,000	$185	57
8167 Dartmoth Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+5%)	1mo	$315,000	$187	57
8214 Stonelick Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-5%)	8mo	$300,000	$197	54
7737 Gold Coin Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,524 (-5%)	6mo	$280,000	$184	53
1074 S Avon Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,479 (-8%)	6mo	$180,000	$122	52
7086 E County Road 100 S	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,416 (-11%)	2mo	$255,000	$180	47
8106 Lomas Pass	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,787 (+12%)	8mo	$340,000	$190	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,095
• Equity at exit: $41,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-43,957
• Equity at exit: $24,036

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46123

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,209/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $272,630

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $48	+0% $-30	+5% $-109	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-117	+0% $-30	+5% $56	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $40	base $-30	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7147 Governors Row Avon, IN	3.0	3.5	2130	$1,999	$0.94	45d	1	0.42mi
8060 Clarks Creek Ct Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,125	$1.29	45d	1	0.53mi
8060 Clarks Creek Ct Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,125	$1.29	45d	1	0.53mi
8140 Elsen Rdg Avon, IN	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,049	$1.36	23d	1	0.56mi
8325 Bluestem Ln Plainfield, IN	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,495	$1.16	23d	1	1.11mi
8151 Lupine Dr Plainfield, IN	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,450	$1.22	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $278,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$2,209
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$5,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1800270
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $75,987
• Composite: 46.93/100
• National rank: #2362
• State rank: #32 of 301 in IN

Livability — Avon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #4686

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hendricks County · 143,373 people
• City population: 43,353
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 43,353
• Household income: $103,485
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Hendricks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,418 people
• By 2030: 201,494 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 228,487 · +21.9%
• By 2050: 253,068 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 308,920 · +64.8%
• By 2100: 336,510 · +79.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendricks

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.4% · R 59.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -23.4pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+23.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.05%
• Current HPI: 203.9226
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $278,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,209 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.