🏷️ Likely Rental
444 68th St · New York, NY
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 97°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 61.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 5 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 7 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +26.6/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +9.1/10.0
- 1% rule +8.1/10.0
- Appreciation +7.8/10.0
- Rent growth +5.0/5.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$1,080,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed
5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.
Listing remarks
Prime Bay Ridge 6-Family Investment Opportunity. Located in the heart of Bay Ridge, this well-maintained six-family building features six units, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. The property is ideally situated close to the subway, restaurants, shops, and everyday conveniences. Currently, five units are tenant-occupied, with one unit delivered vacant, providing flexibility for end-users or investors. A large basement offers ample storage space. A solid income-producing property in one of Brooklyn’s most desirable neighborhoods.
Key facts
- Close to subway
- Close to restaurants
- Tenant occupied
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: On-street parking
- Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water available; Trash collection service available
- Home design: Triplex; Total building area approx. 5,250 sq ft
- Construction: Brick construction
- Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront
Interior
- Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom
- Bathrooms: First-floor full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
- Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 6 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.08M.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive. Per door: $481/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $1.08M).
- Recommended offer: $950k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $14,094/mo this rent would consume 242% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 6563% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $68k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $61k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
- Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $302k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$109k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($950k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $70k; list at $1.08M implies a 1443% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.31% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.50%
- Cash-on-cash
- 11.46%
- DSCR
- 1.51
- GRM
- 6.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $1,533,000
- Comps found
- 6
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 618 67th St | 0.25mi | 12/6.0 | 5,232 (-0%) | 0mo | $1,450,000 | $277 | 87 |
| 352 63rd St | 0.34mi | 12/6.0 | 5,549 (+6%) | 9mo | $1,380,000 | $249 | 67 |
| 8301 4th Ave | 0.73mi | 6/3.0 | 5,200 (-1%) | 1mo | $1,920,000 | $369 | 64 |
| 6001 5th Ave | 0.45mi | 10/5.0 | 6,000 (+14%) | 1mo | $2,450,000 | $408 | 54 |
| 729 59th St | 0.65mi | 11/7.0 | 4,800 (-9%) | 2mo | $1,400,000 | $292 | 54 |
| 247 Senator St | 0.32mi | 10/6.0 | 4,500 (-14%) | 20mo | $1,120,000 | $249 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
5.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 27.2%
- Equity multiple
- 2.81×
- Total profit
- $547,543
- Equity at exit
- $654,049
- IRR
- 28.1%
- Equity multiple
- 6.49×
- Total profit
- $1,659,403
- Equity at exit
- $1,165,181
Cash invested: $302,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (CITY)
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City New York
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34
ZIP-level market 11220
- Home prices YoY
- 2.5%
- Rents YoY
- 11.0%
- Active inventory
- 271
- Price-to-rent
- 38.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $14,094 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$5,664
- Tax from tax record
- −$2,133 /mo · $25,592/yr
- Insurance
- −$450
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$2,960
- Net cashflow
- $2,888
Break-even live
6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6× units | 2 | — | $14,094 |
| #1 | 2 | — | $2,349 |
| #2 | 2 | — | $2,349 |
| #3 | 2 | — | $2,349 |
| #4 | 2 | — | $2,349 |
| #5 | 2 | — | $2,349 |
| #6 | 2 | — | $2,349 |
| Total (6 units) | $14,094 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $270,000
- Closing costs
- $32,400
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 518 86th St Unit 3 Brooklyn, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4950 | $3,058 | $0.62 | 24d | 1 | 0.99mi |
Listing history 13 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $1,080,000 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $1,080,000 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $1,080,000 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $1,080,000 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $1,080,000 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $1,080,000 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $1,080,000 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $1,080,000 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $1,080,000 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $1,080,000 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-05-15price $1,080,000
-
2026-01-11$1,180,000 Active
-
1983-04-01soldstatus $70,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $25,592 · $2,133/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $25,592 · $2,133/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $169,128
- − Mortgage interest
- −$60,497
- − Property taxes
- −$25,592
- − Insurance
- −$5,400
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$13,530
- − Management
- −$13,530
- − Depreciation
- −$31,418
- Taxable income
- $19,161
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$4,599
- After-tax cash flow
- $30,057/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
No district data.
Livability — New York
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #268
- US rank
- #4188
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- New York, NY
- County
- Kings County · 2,614,986 people
- City population
- 7,731,280
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 90,652
- Household income
- $69,883
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 6563.0
Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,847,441 people
- By 2030
- 2,937,006 · +3.1%
- By 2040
- 3,095,491 · +8.7%
- By 2050
- 3,228,968 · +13.4%
- By 2075
- 3,321,723 · +16.7%
- By 2100
- 3,111,387 · +9.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
- Race & ethnicity
- Asian 40% Hispanic / Latino 40% White 16% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Subsaharan African 1%
- Foreign-born
- 52% · China, Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 20% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 35% Arabic 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Kings
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 5.63%
- Current HPI
- 226.624
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 11.02%
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
|
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| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
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| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
|
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| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
|
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
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Price history
+1442.9% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-15 Price Changed $1,080,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-01-11 Listed $1,180,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 1983-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+5.1%/yrLatest (2025): $25,592 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…