4716 Fir Dr · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$419,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 170 Days on market

Built 2003 6,534 sqft lot Est $502k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4716 Fir Drive, a well-maintained 2003 home offering over 1,500 sq ft of comfortable living. The smart layout features two living room spaces and a desirable bedroom design, featuring a generously sized primary bedroom with an en suite bath on one side and secondary bedrooms on the other. Ideal for first-time buyers or investors, this home sits in Blaine’s sought-after coastal corridor and was previously operated as an income-producing Airbnb. The low-maintenance yard means more time for beach-combing, kayaking, and enjoying Birch Bay’s stunning sunsets—just minutes from your door. Close to local boutiques, cafés, and seasonal festivals, this home blends

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, VA Loan

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered/carport space); RV parking available
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (Birch Bay Water & Sewer); Sewer connected (Birch Bay Water & Sewer); Electric water heater; Power by PSE; Internet (Ziply)
• Home design: Manufactured home on land (double wide); One story; Main level entry; Faces south
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Model ORE 440826 (double wide manufactured)
• Exterior features: Partially fenced yard; Patio; Outbuildings; RV parking; Wood exterior products; Paved dead-end street; Level to partially sloped lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eating space; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom (main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level); Each bathroom includes a tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Has heating and cooling (see remarks)
• Interior features: Dining room; Vaulted ceilings; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-489 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $330k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $266,784 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $501,984
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4716 Fir Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	0mo	$419,000	$277	100
4739 Alderson Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-10%)	11mo	$450,000	$332	70
7459 Sunset Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+11%)	14mo	$559,000	$334	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $197,153
• Equity at exit: $377,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $605,359
• Equity at exit: $814,025

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,702/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,287

Max offer price $332,544

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-252	-5% $-371	+0% $-489	+5% $-608	+10% $-727
Rent	-10% $-700	-5% $-595	+0% $-489	+5% $-384	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-278	-0.5pp $-383	base $-489	+0.5pp $-598	+1.0pp $-708

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-14
   price $419,000
3. 2026-01-06
   price $435,000
4. 2025-11-11
   listed $450,000 Active
5. 2021-12-01
   soldstatus $330,000 Closed
6. 2021-10-12
   status Pending
7. 2021-10-08
   status Active
8. 2021-09-26
   status Pending
9. 2021-09-23
   status Active
10. 2021-09-21
    status Pending
11. 2021-09-14
    listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,702 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,106 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,405/yr (+$117/mo · 52.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$2,702
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,561
• − Management: −$2,561
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$13,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+33.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $419,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $435,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listed $450,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-01 Sold (MLS) $330,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-08 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-14 Listed $315,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,702 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.