265 Spanish Flag Way · Temelec, CA 95476

$374,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2012 $267/sqft · 36% above area Est $275k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful private garden retreat in Seven Flags of Sonoma. This well-maintained 3-bedroom home offers fruit trees, a generous fenced yard, as well as major system upgrades. Welcome to 265 Spanish Flag Way in the desirable Seven Flags of Sonoma 55+ community! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,400 sq ft of comfortable living with vaulted ceilings, light-filled spaces, and an open kitchen with ample storage. Thoughtfully maintained and updated, it provides an easy, relaxed lifestyle in a quiet location. The spacious backyard is divided into two areas, creating a versatile outdoor retreat. The four garden beds, Meyer lemon tree, Granny Smith apple tree, and pear tree invite space for hobby gardening, fresh produce, or peaceful relaxation. A storage shed adds practical space for tools, while the front low-maintenance landscaping keeps outdoor care simple. Recent updates include seismic retrofitting, a newer air conditioning system with thermostat, gutters, and appliances which convey with the home. Off-street parking for up to three cars adds convenience, and the home's functional layout supports single-level, low-stress living with flexible bedroom space for guests, hobbies, or office use. Enjoy the welcoming atmosphere of one of Sonoma's most established 55+ communities with convenient access to Sonoma Valley destinations, Napa, Petaluma, San Francisco, and the Northern California coast. With light-filled interiors, a private garden retreat, and thoughtful updates, 265 Spanish Flag Way offers the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and Sonoma lifestyle.

Key facts

• Four garden beds
• Spacious backyard
• Fenced yard

Tags

• PRIVATE GARDEN RETREAT
• FENCED YARD
• MAJOR SYSTEM UPGRADES
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FOUR GARDEN BEDS
• MEYER LEMON TREE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $374k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($679/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#811 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prestwood Elementary (262 students, 30% FRL); Adele Harrison Middle (335 students, 38% FRL); Sonoma Valley High (1,127 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,953 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $374,500
• Delta: 36.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
258 English Flag Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	10mo	$278,500	$207	83
166 Seven Flags Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$285,000	$212	82
282 Paseo Bolivar	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+4%)	4mo	$365,000	$251	78
106 Drake Mews # 106	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	6mo	$288,000	$200	76
46 International Blvd	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	1mo	$189,000	$131	75
14 Fort Ross Way	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	8mo	$288,000	$214	73
145 Bear Flag Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+9%)	2mo	$289,880	$189	70
33 Benicia Way	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+6%)	10mo	$200,000	$134	65
230 E Seven Flags Cir	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (+12%)	9mo	$159,950	$101	64
200 Mexican Flag Way	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,213 (-14%)	5mo	$275,000	$227	60
123 Bear Flag Rd	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+9%)	9mo	$200,000	$130	60
162 Bear Flag Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+9%)	7mo	$262,000	$171	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-63,515
• Equity at exit: $55,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-75,945
• Equity at exit: $32,380

Cash invested: $104,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,964
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,085/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,798

Max offer price $374,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $163	+0% $57	+5% $-49	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-57	+0% $57	+5% $170	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $245	-0.5pp $152	base $57	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,625
• Closing costs: $11,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,500 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $374,500 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $374,500 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $374,500 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $374,500 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $374,500 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $374,500 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $374,500 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-03-20
   listed $374,500 Active 1611-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1611 chars)

   Beautiful private garden retreat in Seven Flags of Sonoma. This well-maintained 3-bedroom home offers fruit trees, a generous fenced yard, as well as major system upgrades. Welcome to 265 Spanish Flag Way in the desirable Seven Flags of Sonoma 55+ community! This move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers over 1,400 sq ft of comfortable living with vaulted ceilings, light-filled spaces, and an open kitchen with ample storage. Thoughtfully maintained and updated, it provides an easy, relaxed lifestyle in a quiet location. The spacious backyard is divided into two areas, creating a versatile outdoor retreat. The four garden beds, Meyer lemon tree, Granny Smith apple tree, and pear tree invite space for hobby gardening, fresh produce, or peaceful relaxation. A storage shed adds practical space for tools, while the front low-maintenance landscaping keeps outdoor care simple. Recent updates include seismic retrofitting, a newer air conditioning system with thermostat, gutters, and appliances which convey with the home. Off-street parking for up to three cars adds convenience, and the home's functional layout supports single-level, low-stress living with flexible bedroom space for guests, hobbies, or office use. Enjoy the welcoming atmosphere of one of Sonoma's most established 55+ communities with convenient access to Sonoma Valley destinations, Napa, Petaluma, San Francisco, and the Northern California coast. With light-filled interiors, a private garden retreat, and thoughtful updates, 265 Spanish Flag Way offers the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and Sonoma lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,085 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,846 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,761/yr (+$147/mo · 162.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,978
• − Property taxes: −$1,085
• − Insurance: −$1,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,755
• − Management: −$2,755
• − Depreciation: −$10,895
• Taxable loss: −$5,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,417
• After-tax cash flow: $2,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Temelec

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #811
• US rank: #22885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temelec, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $374,500 BAREIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,085 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.