5533 Whitby Rd · Baltimore, MD 21206

$205,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1959 Est $215k · at est. ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover a prime investment opportunity in this charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom townhouse, built in 1959 and boasting a classic Federal architectural style. With a fully finished basement, this property offers additional living space that can be easily converted into a rental unit or used for storage, maximizing your return on investment. Located less than a mile from public transportation, this property ensures easy access for tenants, enhancing its rental appeal. The brick construction promises durability and low maintenance, while on-street parking adds convenience for residents. With a total finished area of 1,152 sq. ft. , this townhouse is positioned in a growing neighborhood, making

Key facts

• On-street parking
• Absence of hoa fee
• Brick construction

Tags

• FULLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• ON-STREET PARKING
• ABSENCE OF HOA FEE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Ownership via ground rent; Land assessed separately from improvements

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick construction; Permanent foundation; Structure built (year estimated)
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Tidal water not present; Public water and public sewer; Natural gas available; Ground rent paid semi-annually

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; 60+ gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Fully finished basement; Living area per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 79% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,817 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.30%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5536 Whitby Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	6mo	$137,500	$119	91
6021 Arizona Ave	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,152 (0%)	6mo	$164,900	$143	87
5454 Cedonia Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (0%)	2mo	$215,000	$187	82
5516 Seward Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,164 (+1%)	2mo	$140,000	$120	73
5654 Whitby Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,184 (+3%)	12mo	$248,750	$210	70
8124 Bartholomew Ct	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,148 (-0%)	6mo	$330,900	$288	65
5910 Laclede Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	14mo	$220,000	$191	64
4540 Hazelwood Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-6%)	10mo	$180,000	$167	53
5327 Todd Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (-11%)	1mo	$259,900	$254	47
5907 Daywalt Ave	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (-12%)	11mo	$125,000	$124	46
5006 Anntana Ave	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,024 (-11%)	2mo	$260,000	$254	45
5904 Willet Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,258 (+9%)	5mo	$180,000	$143	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,557
• Equity at exit: $30,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $293
• Equity at exit: $17,811

Cash invested: $57,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21206

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,674/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,758

Max offer price $205,999

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $169	+0% $111	+5% $52	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $36	+0% $111	+5% $186	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $214	-0.5pp $163	base $111	+0.5pp $57	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,500
• Closing costs: $6,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5904 Arizona Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	25d	1	0.25mi
4909 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	862	$1,550	$1.80	5d	5	0.26mi
5676 Utrecht Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,195	$1.65	0d	1	0.28mi
6042 Barstow Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	736	$1,527	$2.07	4d	1	0.29mi
4907 Hamilton Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,699	$1.84	45d	1	0.29mi
4905 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	25d	1	0.30mi
4903 1/2 Hamilton Ave Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	25d	1	0.30mi
4903 1/2 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	25d	1	0.30mi
5738 Cedonia Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	797	$1,372	$1.72	0d	2	0.36mi
5253 Cedgate Rd Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	45d	1	0.43mi
5313 Todd Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	18d	1	0.55mi
4924 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1176	$2,600	$2.21	25d	1	0.66mi
1732 Chesaco Ave Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.0	1260	$2,295	$1.82	45d	1	0.67mi
4308 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1110	$1,416	$1.28	25d	1	0.82mi
5938 Clayton Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,872	$2.22	18d	1	0.87mi
5611 Force Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,850	$1.43	45d	1	0.91mi
5632 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,100	$1.67	25d	1	1.00mi
4111 Century Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$2,500	$1.75	45d	1	1.00mi
8212 Dorset Ave Rosedale, MD	4.0	1.5	1479	$2,250	$1.52	45d	1	1.09mi
5906 Benton Heights Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	780	$1,350	$1.73	45d	1	1.10mi
2009 Longview Ave Rosedale, MD	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,500	$2.35	16d	1	1.11mi
4901 Gunther Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,463	$1.97	4d	1	1.18mi
4517 Woodlea Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1326	$1,900	$1.43	4d	1	1.20mi
5424 Belle Vista Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	932	$1,300	$1.39	45d	1	1.23mi
5305 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	679	$1,993	$2.93	4d	1	1.24mi
4007 Biddison Ln Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,279	$1.28	19d	1	1.29mi
4023 Belwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,995	$1.85	45d	1	1.30mi
4104 Parkwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	25d	1	1.32mi
5926 Belle Vista Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,250	$1.80	0d	1	1.33mi
6004 Amberwood Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	751	$1,220	$1.62	22d	1	1.35mi
5413 Pembroke Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,895	$1.40	0d	1	1.39mi
5731 Denwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,700	$1.18	25d	1	1.41mi
5731 Denwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,700	$1.48	23d	1	1.41mi
3802 Biddison Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1443	$2,024	$1.40	13d	1	1.43mi
4409 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	861	$1,385	$1.61	45d	3	1.49mi
3607 Bayonne Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,999 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,999 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,999 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $205,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,539
• − Property taxes: −$2,674
• − Insurance: −$1,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − Depreciation: −$5,993
• Taxable loss: −$2,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$504
• After-tax cash flow: $1,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 48,902
• Household income: $64,531
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2317.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 20% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.83%
• Current HPI: 284.5645
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-43.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $205,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $364,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,674 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.