3532 Jerry St · White Bear Lake, MN 55110

$277,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1968 0.25 ac lot $167/sqft · 20% below area Est $329k · 16% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This White Bear Lake one-story home offers a patio, and a two-car garage. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Attached garage
• Large living room

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FINISHED FAMILY ROOM
• DECK OVERLOOKING BACKYARD
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One level; Above- and below-grade finished living space
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Asphalt pitched roof; Foundation: Other
• Exterior features: Deck; Wood exterior; Storage shed; Irregular lot; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Wall oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath on the main level; 1 three-quarter bath in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement; Kitchen and dining combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer; Laundry sink (lower level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-704/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in White Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#124 in MN, #2,842 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $243,446 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,184
• List price: $277,500
• Delta: -15.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-49,066
• Equity at exit: $41,376

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-49,025
• Equity at exit: $23,993

Cash invested: $77,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55110

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,434 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,455
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,932/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,509

Max offer price $267,141

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,375
• Closing costs: $8,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1711 County Road E E Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,610	$2.89	1d	15	0.66mi
3600 Hoffman Rd Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	807	$2,440	$3.02	1d	22	0.75mi
3185 Karth Rd Saint Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1045	$1,832	$1.75	1d	5	0.77mi
2299 Randy Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,350	$1.51	1d	1	1.01mi
2515 Jansen Ave White Bear Lake, MN	3.0	3.0	1742	$3,400	$1.95	1d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 539-char remark
2. 2026-05-16
   historical Contingent - Inspection 539-char remark
3. 2026-05-03
   listed $277,500 Active 539-char remark
4. 2025-06-05
   historical
5. 2025-03-28
   status Active
6. 2025-02-08
   price $390,000
7. 2025-01-17
   listed $399,000 Active
8. 2025-01-15
   historical
9. 2022-06-09
   soldstatus $342,000
10. 2022-06-08
    soldstatus $342,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    This White Bear Lake one-story home offers a patio, and a two-car garage. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

11. 2022-04-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    This White Bear Lake one-story home offers a patio, and a two-car garage. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

12. 2022-04-20
    listed $342,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    This White Bear Lake one-story home offers a patio, and a two-car garage. This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

13. 2022-03-23
    soldstatus $324,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,932 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,932 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,544
• − Property taxes: −$4,932
• − Insurance: −$1,388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
• − Management: −$2,337
• − Depreciation: −$8,073
• Taxable loss: −$5,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: White Bear Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 2742360
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $73,051
• Composite: 45.78/100
• National rank: #2564
• State rank: #83 of 301 in MN

Livability — White Bear Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #2842

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Bear Lake, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 37,305
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 37,305
• Household income: $101,296
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.94%
• Current HPI: 237.0992
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Listed $277,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-08 Price Changed $390,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-17 Listed $399,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-15 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $342,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-08 Sold (MLS) $342,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-30 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-20 Listed $342,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $324,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,932 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.