4513 W Forest Park Ave · Baltimore, MD 21207

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1952 6,775 sqft lot $129/sqft · 26% below area Est $326k · 26% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located across the street from Forest Park Golf Course. The home has been demo'd and is ready for a renovation. There is a full unfinished basement, large footprint. Get in early on this one! Seller prefers Cash/ Hard Money as the home will be sold As-Is.

Key facts

• Large footprint
• 6,775 sq ft lot
• Built 1952

Tags

• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE FOOTPRINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-510/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elmer A. Henderson: A Johns Hopkins Partnership (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 642 students, 80% FRL); Vanguard Collegiate Middle (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 84% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,288 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,700
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -26.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2909 Lawina Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,846 (-1%)	6mo	$227,000	$123	77
4701 Norfolk Ave	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,810 (-3%)	4mo	$380,000	$210	76
4711 W Forest Park Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,740 (-6%)	8mo	$315,000	$181	74
4504 Norfolk Ave	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,067 (+11%)	0mo	$267,000	$129	72
4501 Springdale Ave	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,864 (+0%)	8mo	$215,000	$115	66
2316 Tucker Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+1%)	1mo	$420,000	$224	63
3016 Wayne Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,922 (+3%)	4mo	$245,000	$127	58
3002 Oakhill Ave	0.61mi	3/3.0	1,832 (-2%)	8mo	$360,000	$197	58
2916 N Loudon Ave	0.39mi	3/2.5	2,002 (+8%)	12mo	$306,000	$153	57
2907 Mount Holly St	0.61mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,890 (+2%)	8mo	$355,000	$188	52
4012 Chatham Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,928 (+4%)	11mo	$310,000	$161	51
5202 Norwood Ave	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,723 (-7%)	7mo	$319,900	$186	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.5% appreciation · 5.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $123,947
• Equity at exit: $207,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $374,357
• Equity at exit: $438,544

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21207

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,583/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $232,486

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $25	+0% $-43	+5% $-110	+10% $-178
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-115	+0% $-43	+5% $30	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $19	base $-43	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4309 Norfolk Ave Unit 1st Floor Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	12d	1	0.22mi
3914 Maine Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	2127	$1,150	$0.54	45d	1	0.61mi
3904 Gwynns Falls Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,600	$1.47	45d	1	0.84mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,100	$1.40	16d	1	1.03mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	16d	1	1.03mi
3508 Grantley Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	25d	1	1.08mi
3709 Nortonia Rd #2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1289	$1,450	$1.12	19d	1	1.20mi
3213 Vickers Rd Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	2568	$1,700	$0.66	25d	1	1.25mi
3535 Flannery Ln Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	45d	1	1.33mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	25d	1	1.47mi
3030 Windsor Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	2124	$1,995	$0.94	6d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $240,000 Pending 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $240,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $240,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-03-25
   price $240,000 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Located across the street from Forest Park Golf Course. The home has been demo'd and is ready for a renovation. There is a full unfinished basement, large footprint. Get in early on this one! Seller prefers Cash/ Hard Money as the home will be sold As-Is.

5. 2026-03-04
   listed $250,000 Active 255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (255 chars)

   Located across the street from Forest Park Golf Course. The home has been demo'd and is ready for a renovation. There is a full unfinished basement, large footprint. Get in early on this one! Seller prefers Cash/ Hard Money as the home will be sold As-Is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,583 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$516/yr (+$43/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,583
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,136
• After-tax cash flow: $626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,099
• Household income: $67,060
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 78% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Current HPI: 843.63
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,583 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.