439 15th St #11 · Miami Beach, FL 33139

$217,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 465 sqft · Condo public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1935 $605/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW everything. Updated, cozy beach condo in ideal location. You're steps away from Washington. To your right less than a block you have historic Espanola Way, to your left a block or two you have Lincoln RD. Two blocks forward you hit the beach. New microwave, dishwasher, fridge, sink, countertops + cabinets. Condo has been freshly painted. REAL wood floors were refinished w/ new vanity + toilet, lights, etc. Brand new A/C wall unit & electronic entrance key. $59K ASSESMENT PAID IN FULL! Instant equity. .. new roof, fixing wall cracks, installing impact windows, painting, remodeling washing machine & water heater room, & more! Two story building w/ only 24 units total. Condo is on the 1st floor. * countertops+backsplash to be installed prior to closing * Cheapest condo listed in building.

Key facts

• $605 HOA
• Built 1935
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with conditions or restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $605

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Home design: 3-story building; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Resale property
• Exterior features: Property is attached

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Furnished; Bedroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $218k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 1214 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,371/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4052% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.88%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.19% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-28,946
• Equity at exit: $40,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,671
• Equity at exit: $32,762

Cash invested: $60,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33139

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 1214
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,141
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,290/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$605
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,211

Max offer price $217,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $187	+0% $126	+5% $64	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-7	+0% $126	+5% $259	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $181	base $126	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,375
• Closing costs: $6,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $605 · $7,260/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $217,500 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $217,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $217,500 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $217,500 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 624-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $217,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,290 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,290 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,183
• − Property taxes: −$3,290
• − Insurance: −$6,206
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,236
• − Management: −$3,236
• − HOA: −$7,260
• − Depreciation: −$6,327
• Taxable loss: −$1,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$310
• After-tax cash flow: $1,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami Beach

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1672

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Beach, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 90,533
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,753
• Household income: $69,793
• Rent vs Own: 62.8% rent · 37.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4052.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 15% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 56% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.19%
• Current HPI: 277.9321
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-89.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $217,500 MARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Rental Removed $1,675 REALLYO
• 2024-12-03 Listed for Rent $1,675 REALLYO
• 2024-12-02 Rental Removed $1,675 MARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listed for Rent $1,675 MARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Rental Removed $1,800 REALLYO
• 2024-10-03 Listed for Rent $1,800 REALLYO
• 2024-10-03 Rental Removed $1,800 REALLYO
• 2024-10-02 Rental Removed $1,800 REALLYO
• 2024-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,800 REALLYO
• 2024-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,800 REALLYO
• 2024-09-04 Rental Removed $1,800 MARMLS
• 2024-08-26 Listed for Rent $1,800 MARMLS
• 2024-08-21 Rental Removed $1,800 MARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed for Rent $1,800 MARMLS
• 2023-12-02 Rental Removed $1,800 MARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listed for Rent $1,800 MARMLS
• 2022-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-31 Sold (MLS) $225,000 MARMLS
• 2022-05-02 Pending — MARMLS
• 2022-04-26 Listed $219,999 MARMLS
• 2021-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-15 Sold (MLS) $155,000 MARMLS
• 2021-09-09 Contingent — MARMLS
• 2021-07-08 Listed $160,000 MARMLS
• 2021-06-22 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2021-03-08 Listed $160,000 MARMLS
• 2009-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $2,080,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,290 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.