2209 Jesse James Ln · Burleson, TX 76058

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $225k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner's suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Private corner
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM
• PRIVATE CORNER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed as Active with list price $249,999; Address: 2209 Jesse James Ln, Joshua, TX 76058

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 2-car parking (total 2 spaces, 2 garage spaces)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Beckman plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1302

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Beckman plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,249 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,246
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 Doc Holiday Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,302 (0%)	1mo	$246,999	$190	91
2152 Jesse James Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$228,999	$158	73
2144 Jesse James Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+12%)	1mo	$219,849	$150	71
2133 W Fm 917	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,456 (+12%)	9mo	$245,000	$168	51
2428 County Road 911	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+11%)	1mo	$390,000	$270	50
5815 Thousand Oaks Dr	0.67mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,316 (+1%)	13mo	$227,250	$173	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,172
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $15,211
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $249,999

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $452	+0% $366	+5% $279	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $261	+0% $366	+5% $470	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $429	base $366	+0.5pp $301	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Caddo Peak Trl Joshua, TX	3.0	3.0	1504	$2,650	$1.76	11d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $249,999 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,999 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,999 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $234,999 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $234,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $234,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $234,999 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$105
• After-tax cash flow: $4,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and adding outdoor lighting — Improves curb appeal and safety
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and adds value for both resale and rental

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding outdoor lighting — Improves curb appeal and safety ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances comfort and adds value for both resale and rental ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• City population: 81,549
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B