621 W Watkins St · Covington, KY 41011

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

2,973 sqft lot Est $235k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 story home with half bath on level 1. New roof 2018 including sheathing and shingles, new furnace, and new siding with insulation. Located close to hospitals, highway, and downtown Covington & Cincy.

Key facts

• Private rear yard
• Historic character
• Open and airy layout

Tags

• HISTORIC CHARACTER
• OPEN AND AIRY LAYOUT
• PRIVATE REAR YARD
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Shingle siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Cleared lot; City street frontage; Has a view; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom 2 (approx. 12 x 15)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Smoke detector(s); Vinyl window frames; Living room (approx. 14 x 15); Dining room (approx. 15 x 16); Other room (approx. 10 x 15)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $888 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John G Carlisle Elementary (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 304 students, 81% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 82% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.20%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
930 Montague Rd	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (+2%)	1mo	$261,000	$167	74
1517 Banklick St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	4mo	$68,000	$44	72
222 Berry St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,620 (+6%)	1mo	$385,000	$238	61
1545 Holman St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,439 (-6%)	6mo	$200,000	$139	61
916 Montague Rd	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,740 (+13%)	4mo	$202,500	$116	56
202 W 18th St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,436 (-6%)	4mo	$219,000	$153	54
1326 Banklick	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+12%)	6mo	$158,000	$92	52
1718 Woodburn Ave	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,680 (+9%)	3mo	$244,000	$145	50
1143 Cecelia Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,410 (-8%)	5mo	$302,500	$215	48
346 W 9th St	0.44mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,765 (+15%)	4mo	$310,000	$176	43
252 Pershing Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,710 (+11%)	2mo	$157,500	$92	41
1210 Old State Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,361 (-11%)	3mo	$302,250	$222	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $31,395
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $87,061
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,057/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $888

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,184

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 Lee St Unit 3 Covington, KY	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,000	$1.62	23d	1	0.32mi
1431 Dixie Hwy Park Hills, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,553	$2.77	1d	10	0.44mi
515 Main St Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,215	$2.37	1d	8	0.71mi
1025 Scott St Unit 2 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	0.79mi
1927 Scott St Apt 1 Covington, KY	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	19d	1	1.03mi
508 Greenup St Unit 508-02 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1220	$1,800	$1.48	2d	1	1.07mi
2307 Center St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1216	$1,950	$1.60	7d	1	1.11mi
103 E 3rd St Covington, KY	2.0	2.5	1291	$3,250	$2.52	1d	1	1.12mi
50 W Rivercenter Blvd Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1273	$3,640	$2.86	1d	9	1.12mi
2030 Mackoy St Covington, KY	3.0	1.5	1598	$1,779	$1.11	4d	1	1.19mi
1222 E Henry Clay Ave Fort Wright, KY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,548	$1.29	23d	1	1.21mi
2220 Cityscape Dr Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,985	$2.13	1d	9	1.28mi
22 Swain Ct Covington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,295	$2.41	1d	3	1.30mi
1261 Parkway Ave Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	4d	3	1.32mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $134,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $134,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-22
    status Active
13. 2026-05-09
    status Pending
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $134,900 Active
15. 2025-12-10
    status Pending
16. 2025-12-09
    historical
17. 2025-11-17
    price $139,900
18. 2025-09-17
    price $154,900
19. 2025-08-15
    listed $164,900 Active
20. 2022-02-09
    soldstatus $120,000
21. 2022-02-02
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 story home with half bath on level 1. New roof 2018 including sheathing and shingles, new furnace, and new siding with insulation. Located close to hospitals, highway, and downtown Covington & Cincy.

22. 2022-01-19
    status Pending 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 story home with half bath on level 1. New roof 2018 including sheathing and shingles, new furnace, and new siding with insulation. Located close to hospitals, highway, and downtown Covington & Cincy.

23. 2022-01-18
    listed $135,000 Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 story home with half bath on level 1. New roof 2018 including sheathing and shingles, new furnace, and new siding with insulation. Located close to hospitals, highway, and downtown Covington & Cincy.

24. 2022-01-11
    historical
25. 2021-12-29
    price $125,000
26. 2021-12-20
    price $135,000
27. 2021-12-10
    listed $145,000 Active
28. 2018-02-28
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,057 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,057 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,057
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,215
• − Management: −$2,215
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $9,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,171
• After-tax cash flow: $8,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+237.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — NKMLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $134,900 NKMLS
• 2025-12-10 Pending — NKMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $139,900 NKMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $154,900 NKMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $164,900 NKMLS
• 2022-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-02 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NKMLS
• 2022-01-19 Pending — NKMLS
• 2022-01-18 Listed $135,000 NKMLS
• 2022-01-11 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2021-12-29 Price Changed $125,000 NKMLS
• 2021-12-20 Price Changed $135,000 NKMLS
• 2021-12-10 Listed $145,000 NKMLS
• 2018-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,057 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.