1817 Crystal Grove Dr · Lakeland, FL 33801

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1984 3,659 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TOWNHOME 2/2 - BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS, SINGLE CAR GARAGE W/ GREAT RENTAL HISTORY.

Key facts

• Modern roof
• Vinyl flooring
• No hoa fees

Tags

• MODERN ROOF
• NO HOA FEES
• TILE FLOORING
• VINYL FLOORING
• RENTAL CASH FLOW POTENTIAL
• STRONG RENTAL HISTORY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.08 acres (31 x 110); Total rooms: 4; Living area approximately 944 square feet; Unit number not applicable; Third-party listing
• Financial info: Lease restrictions not indicated (no); Furnished status: Negotiable; Taxes and other financial details available separately
• HOA & community: No community features; No association fee services included; Association approval not required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space)
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Planned Unit Development (PUD) zoning; East-facing; Two stories; Entry level information not specified
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as part of CRYSTAL GROVE/1817
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Road surface: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($355/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lake Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 409 students, 60% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Lakeland Senior High School (math 29% / reading 51%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 2,043 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $175k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,143 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-29,285
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-34,180
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,404

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $79	+0% $30	+5% $-20	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $-27	+0% $30	+5% $87	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $74	base $30	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1922 Crystal Grove Dr #1922 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,547	$1.53	25d	1	0.08mi
1969 Crystal Grove Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,415	$2.46	5d	8	0.10mi
2025 Sylvester Rd Unit N109 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,750	$1.59	5d	1	0.58mi
2025 Sylvester Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1099	$1,850	$1.68	25d	2	0.58mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	25d	1	0.76mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	25d	1	0.77mi
1885 N Crystal Lake Dr Apt 7 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	25d	1	0.79mi
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	25d	1	0.80mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	5d	1	0.87mi
3061 Crystal Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	720	$1,400	$1.94	25d	1	0.97mi
1920 E Edgewood Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$1,388	$1.67	5d	2	0.97mi
2023 Tennyson St Unit 2025 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,095	$1.24	25d	1	1.13mi
3021 Balfour Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,275	$1.56	5d	1	1.17mi
3306 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	742	$1,195	$1.61	16d	1	1.27mi
3321 Peachtree Hill Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,475	$1.54	16d	1	1.31mi
1323 Tom Watson Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	25d	1	1.31mi
2184 Colonial Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,645	$1.46	25d	1	1.34mi
1509 Phyllis St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,660	$1.56	16d	1	1.34mi
1108 Bartow Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	797	$1,395	$1.75	5d	2	1.35mi
1104 Bartow Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,225	$1.61	25d	1	1.45mi
3330 Jean Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	616	$1,300	$2.11	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 188 DOM
15. 2025-12-18
    price $175,000
16. 2025-12-10
    price $180,000
17. 2025-12-01
    price $185,000
18. 2025-11-24
    listed $190,000 Active
19. 2007-10-10
    listed $84,900
20. 2006-04-21
    soldstatus $70,000
21. 2006-04-13
    soldstatus $70,000 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    TOWNHOME 2/2 - BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS, SINGLE CAR GARAGE W/ GREAT RENTAL HISTORY.

22. 2005-10-07
    listed $75,000 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    TOWNHOME 2/2 - BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS, SINGLE CAR GARAGE W/ GREAT RENTAL HISTORY.

23. 1993-04-13
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$639
• After-tax cash flow: $994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+573.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-10 Listed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-13 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-07 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,422 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.