4732 Caney Bay Rd · Hickox, GA 31553

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1978 1.00 ac lot $123/sqft · 26% below area Est $303k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fall in love with this traditional brick 3 bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a 1-acre lot. Built in 1978, this traditional property offers a family-friendly layout featuring spacious bedrooms, a separate living room and dining room, an inviting eat-in kitchen, laundry room, and a cozy screened porch. Enjoy added peace of mind with a new roof installed within the past (9) years and a new air conditioning and heating unit added just (1) year ago. This home provides comfort, functionality, and plenty of room to grow- don't miss it! 1,867 heated sq. ft. Contact [phone]

Key facts

• Cozy screened porch
• 1 acre lot
• Separate living room

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• SEPARATE LIVING ROOM
• INVITING EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COZY SCREENED PORCH
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (44.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brantley County (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 174 in GA (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Brantley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Brantley County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,434 (44.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,998
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -24.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $18,343
• Equity at exit: $118,108

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $81,192
• Equity at exit: $194,790

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31553

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $832/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,729

Max offer price $164,206

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $229,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2025-12-17
    listed $229,000 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Fall in love with this traditional brick 3 bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a 1-acre lot. Built in 1978, this traditional property offers a family-friendly layout featuring spacious bedrooms, a separate living room and dining room, an inviting eat-in kitchen, laundry room, and a cozy screened porch. Enjoy added peace of mind with a new roof installed within the past (9) years and a new air conditioning and heating unit added just (1) year ago. This home provides comfort, functionality, and plenty of room to grow- don't miss it! 1,867 heated sq. ft. Contact [phone]

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,107 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,275/yr (+$106/mo · 153.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$832
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$8,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,093
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brantley County
• NCES district ID: 1300480
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,053
• Composite: 37.85/100
• National rank: #4328
• State rank: #26 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hickox

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,815

Population outlook (Brantley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,422 people
• By 2030: 18,220 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 17,441 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 16,044 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 11,707 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 7,006 · -62.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brantley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.5) · D 8.7% · R 91.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -63.1pp · 2024: -82.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.5 2020: R+81.2 2016: R+78.6 2012: R+67.0 2008: R+63.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 122.001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Listed $229,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $832 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.