3241 Autumn Chase Cir · Stockton, CA 95219

$449,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,551 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1998 5,053 sqft lot $289/sqft · 12% below area Est $508k · 12% under $152/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this gorgeous home located in the highly desirable Brookside area! Built in 1998 by Florsheim Homes, this property received a recognition award for its exceptional floor plan design. Features 3 beds and 2.5 baths. Step inside to soaring vaulted ceilings and an open-concept living space perfect for entertaining and creating lasting memories. The home features a spacious primary ensuite, offering comfort and privacy along with a nicely sized backyard that's just right for relaxing or hosting gatherings. The white cabinetry through out make this home appear clean and bright. Situated in Lincoln Unified School District and close to freeway for quick access for commuters. Don't miss y

Key facts

• Floor plan design
• All white cabinetry
• 5,053 sq ft lot

Tags

• FLOOR PLAN DESIGN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY ENSUITE
• NICELY SIZED BACKYARD
• ALL WHITE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Quarterly HOA fee of $455; HOA includes pool access; Association provides other community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Located within a gated community
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; Irrigation meter on site
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Residential property; Built in 1998
• Construction: Tile roof
• Exterior features: Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Microwave; Free-standing gas oven; Tile countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Master bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Double sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; Front porch; One fireplace in the family room; Two levels / 2-story home; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside; 220 volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-940 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (37.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (43.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claudia Landeen (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 525 students, 77% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $449k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,491 (43.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.98%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $508,439
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -11.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3634 Whispering Creek Cir	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,493 (-4%)	2mo	$490,000	$328	84
6655 Brook Falls Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-1%)	4mo	$460,000	$300	82
3287 Amberfield Cir	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,461 (-6%)	6mo	$435,000	$298	74
5007 Innisbrook	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,723 (+11%)	2mo	$500,000	$290	69
5071 Moss Creek Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-6%)	4mo	$406,000	$279	67
3769 Bridlewood Cir	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,631 (+5%)	1mo	$465,000	$285	63
5939 Riverbank Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,561 (+1%)	7mo	$515,000	$330	57
3861 Petersburg Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+7%)	0mo	$690,000	$417	55
4152 Round Valley Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	1mo	$455,000	$271	54
3607 Crystal Tree Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+8%)	2mo	$685,000	$409	54
3915 Bridlewood Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-9%)	3mo	$464,050	$330	51
4576 Winding River Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+11%)	7mo	$482,000	$280	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $187,609
• Equity at exit: $404,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $605,896
• Equity at exit: $872,308

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,181/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$152
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-940

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,745

Max offer price $282,874

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-686	-5% $-813	+0% $-940	+5% $-1,067	+10% $-1,195
Rent	-10% $-1,142	-5% $-1,041	+0% $-940	+5% $-839	+10% $-739
Rate	-1.0pp $-714	-0.5pp $-826	base $-940	+0.5pp $-1,057	+1.0pp $-1,175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5007 Innisbrook Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$3,200	$1.86	45d	1	0.19mi
5301 Feather River Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,575	$3.02	4d	6	0.30mi
6031 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,200	$1.77	5d	1	0.62mi
6019 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1185	$2,300	$1.94	16d	1	0.62mi
5834 Brush Creek Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,295	$2.09	4d	1	0.62mi
3915 Bridlewood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,795	$1.99	23d	1	0.62mi
2660 Grand Canal Blvd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	1077	$1,972	$1.83	4d	2	0.88mi
4609 Da Vinci Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1592	$2,000	$1.26	5d	1	0.89mi
2537 Plymouth Oaks Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	45d	1	1.21mi
2217 Polk Way Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1202	$2,300	$1.91	25d	1	1.23mi
2217 Polk Way Stockton, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,399	$2.00	5d	1	1.23mi
3936 Dennis Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,625	$1.66	4d	1	1.29mi
3630 Mill Springs Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$2,000	$1.61	45d	1	1.33mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$2,450	$2.10	45d	1	1.36mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 3 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	45d	1	1.36mi
1851 Porter Way Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1437	$1,950	$1.36	46d	1	1.42mi
6937 Sumter Quay Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,250	$1.87	45d	1	1.43mi
5614 Cascade Ct Unit 5614 Cascade Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1103	$2,000	$1.81	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $152 · $1,824/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $449,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $449,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 1998-12-24
    soldstatus $166,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,181 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,412 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: +$231/yr (+$19/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$3,181
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − HOA: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$19,709
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,730
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1998-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $166,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,181 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.