Carroll III Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 212 Days on market

Excellent condition $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Carroll III floorplan is where modern design meets everyday comfort. This thoughtful layout features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, perfectly balancing private retreats with open living spaces. The alley-load garage entry enhances curb appeal, giving the front of your home a clean, welcoming look. Inside, a designated tech space provides the ideal spot for working from home, studying, or staying connected. With its smart design and timeless style, the Carroll III offers the perfect setting to create lasting memories.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 212 days

Tags

• ALLEY-LOAD GARAGE ENTRY
• DESIGNATED TECH SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $201,644 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,990
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -10.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13509 Muny Pkwy	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,520 (0%)	3mo	$279,990	$184	90
13417 Barn Chime St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (+6%)	3mo	$284,990	$177	79
13432 Barn Chime St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+10%)	0mo	$289,990	$173	78
18308 Rock Sage Cv	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (-2%)	3mo	$225,000	$152	78
13605 Barn Chime St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+6%)	5mo	$289,990	$180	74
13512 Muny Pkwy	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+9%)	6mo	$289,990	$176	72
18420 Wind Tree Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,398 (-8%)	2mo	$192,900	$138	69
13400 Banquete St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,479 (-3%)	1mo	$220,000	$149	61
13804 Sierra Wind Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-14%)	2mo	$245,000	$188	60
13520 Knights Branch Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+5%)	6mo	$230,000	$144	58
18344 Willow Sage Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-14%)	0mo	$238,000	$183	57
17913 Honey Locust Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,668 (+10%)	5mo	$245,000	$147	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $128,921
• Equity at exit: $256,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $401,170
• Equity at exit: $553,673

Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $270,995 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,545

Max offer price $224,575

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-221	-5% $-319	+0% $-418	+5% $-516	+10% $-614
Rent	-10% $-577	-5% $-497	+0% $-418	+5% $-338	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-345	base $-418	+0.5pp $-491	+1.0pp $-566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,248
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,250	$1.09	40d	1	0.09mi
18312 Crestwind Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,800	$1.12	43d	1	0.18mi
18312 Crestwind Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,800	$1.12	4d	1	0.18mi
17721 Somerville Ct Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1886	$1,890	$1.00	9d	1	0.21mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,100	$1.12	9d	1	0.28mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	94d	1	0.28mi
18333 Willow Sage Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,700	$1.31	64d	1	0.37mi
18421 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,795	$1.21	43d	1	0.40mi
13721 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$2,105	$1.73	0d	1	0.43mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,800	$1.26	28d	1	0.43mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	100d	1	0.43mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	100d	1	0.44mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	113d	1	0.45mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	119d	1	0.45mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	119d	1	0.52mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	6d	1	0.52mi
17925 Honey Locust Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	0.55mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,825	$1.14	74d	1	0.55mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	112d	1	0.66mi
17817 Majestic Elm Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$1,875	$0.90	59d	1	0.67mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	112d	1	0.67mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	119d	1	0.67mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	139d	1	0.68mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	139d	1	0.78mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	110d	1	1.07mi
23805 Glowing Embers Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,750	$1.19	0d	1	1.09mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	139d	1	1.18mi
113 Hays Forest Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1738	$1,960	$1.13	28d	1	1.21mi
23604 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,560	$1.16	7d	1	1.28mi
23412 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,680	$1.12	76d	1	1.38mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,910	$0.95	75d	1	1.38mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$1,625	$1.46	0d	10	1.39mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	100d	1	1.41mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	119d	1	1.41mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	84d	1	1.41mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2075	$1,895	$0.91	76d	1	1.41mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2075	$1,895	$0.91	9d	1	1.41mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$650	$0.33	85d	1	1.43mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	117d	1	1.43mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	113d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $254,990 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $254,990 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $254,990 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $254,990 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $254,990 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $254,990 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $254,990 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $254,990 Active 189 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $254,990 Active 188 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $254,990 Active 187 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 186 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $254,990 Active 185 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $254,990 Active 183 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $254,990 Active 182 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 181 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 180 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 179 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $254,990 Active 178 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $254,990 Active 177 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $254,990 Active 176 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $254,990 Active 175 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $254,990 Active 174 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $254,990 Active 173 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $254,990 Active 172 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $254,990 Active 171 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $254,990 Active 169 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $254,990 Active 168 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 167 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 166 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $254,990 Active 164 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $254,990 Active 163 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 162 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 161 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    remarks 699-char remark
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $254,990 Active 158 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $254,990 Active 156 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $254,990 Active 155 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $254,990 Active 153 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $254,990 Active 151 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $254,990 Active 150 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $254,990 Active 149 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $254,990 Active 148 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$10,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Carroll III home in Elgin, TX, presents as move-in ready with excellent exterior and interior conditions. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value and appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system is crucial for rental properties. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Neidig El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Elgin Middle F TX #1,327/1,662 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Elgin H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Listed $269,990 Zillow