430 Winding Way St · Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1943 0.28 ac lot $69/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a well-established neighborhood near downtown, this property features three bedrooms, one bathroom and an attached one-car garage. The utility room is situated inside, and the family dining area opens to the kitchen. This home is an ideal opportunity for investors, as it is being sold As-Is, allowing potential buyers to customize it to their liking.

Key facts

• Opens to kitchen
• Utility room
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• UTILITY ROOM
• OPENS TO KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.07%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,539
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -55.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 Magnolia St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-2%)	2mo	$119,700	$105	82
404 Wisteria St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,168 (+1%)	8mo	$195,000	$167	72
217 Carnation St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,185 (+2%)	1mo	$190,000	$160	69
103 Palm Ln	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-11%)	2mo	$149,900	$145	60
420 Azalea St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,334 (+15%)	2mo	$100,000	$75	57
841 Magnolia St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-12%)	5mo	$150,000	$146	55
226 Laurel St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,006 (-13%)	7mo	$184,500	$183	53
103 Jasmine St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+15%)	5mo	$199,900	$150	50
106 S Magnolia St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,274 (+10%)	2mo	$199,900	$157	49
320 Azalea St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (-11%)	6mo	$150,000	$145	46
110 S Magnolia St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,005 (-13%)	4mo	$199,900	$199	40
119 Mulberry St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+14%)	9mo	$199,900	$151	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $13,750
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $35,391
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77566

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,874/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $876

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
460 TX-332 Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,203	$1.44	3d	11	0.58mi
460 TX-332 Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,453	$1.74	43d	17	0.58mi
214 Oleander St Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,000	$1.41	43d	1	0.88mi
106 Cactus St Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,496	$1.36	43d	1	0.88mi
100 Cactus St Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,895	$1.99	1d	21	0.91mi
133 Plantation Dr W Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,149	$1.07	43d	1	1.06mi
130 Oyster Creek Dr Unit OYS3019 Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	1.0	817	$875	$1.07	1d	1	1.07mi
500 Willow Dr Unit WILA8 Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	937	$935	$1.00	43d	1	1.10mi
500 Willow Dr Unit WILC1 Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	937	$995	$1.06	10d	1	1.10mi
138 Oyster Creek Dr Lake Jackson, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,525	$1.30	43d	1	1.23mi
148 Oyster Creek Dr Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	1.0	865	$975	$1.13	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $79,900 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $86,900 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $86,900 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,900 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,900 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,900 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $86,900 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Located in a well-established neighborhood near downtown, this property features three bedrooms, one bathroom and an attached one-car garage. The utility room is situated inside, and the family dining area opens to the kitchen. This home is an ideal opportunity for investors, as it is being sold As-Is, allowing potential buyers to customize it to their liking.

15. 2026-03-21
    price $94,900 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Located in a well-established neighborhood near downtown, this property features three bedrooms, one bathroom and an attached one-car garage. The utility room is situated inside, and the family dining area opens to the kitchen. This home is an ideal opportunity for investors, as it is being sold As-Is, allowing potential buyers to customize it to their liking.

16. 2026-02-13
    price $99,900 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Located in a well-established neighborhood near downtown, this property features three bedrooms, one bathroom and an attached one-car garage. The utility room is situated inside, and the family dining area opens to the kitchen. This home is an ideal opportunity for investors, as it is being sold As-Is, allowing potential buyers to customize it to their liking.

17. 2026-01-03
    listed $114,900 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    Located in a well-established neighborhood near downtown, this property features three bedrooms, one bathroom and an attached one-car garage. The utility room is situated inside, and the family dining area opens to the kitchen. This home is an ideal opportunity for investors, as it is being sold As-Is, allowing potential buyers to customize it to their liking.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,874 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,874 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$2,874
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,189
• After-tax cash flow: $4,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Jackson

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2709

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Jackson, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,246
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,246
• Household income: $92,586
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.81%
• Current HPI: 251.8234
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $86,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $94,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $114,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,874 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.