317 Cowboy Ln · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · Land · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 7,810 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on a cul-de-sac street in Wolfforth, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath all-electric home offers modern finishes, energy-efficient construction, and convenient access to Frenship schools. Inside, enjoy high ceilings, ceiling fans, custom trim, and well-placed windows that bring in natural light throughout the home. The open kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a functional layout designed for everyday living and entertaining. Spray foam insulation adds energy efficiency, while quality craftsmanship is evident throughout. Just minutes from Frenship High School and Frenship Middle School, the property also provides quick access to Marsha Sharp Freeway, making it l

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac street
• Well-placed windows
• High ceilings

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC STREET
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION
• HIGH CEILINGS
• CUSTOM TRIM
• WELL-PLACED WINDOWS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage faces front; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Brick; Vinyl siding; Foam and spray foam insulation; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built new (new construction)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fenced backyard (wood); Located on a cul-de-sac; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans; Attic fan
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Double vanity in bathroom(s); Eat-in kitchen; Granite countertops; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Recessed lighting; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,188 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $160,866
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $481,732
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,392

Max offer price $285,744

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-76	+0% $-166	+5% $-255	+10% $-344
Rent	-10% $-338	-5% $-252	+0% $-166	+5% $-79	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-85	base $-166	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	15d	1	0.06mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	15d	1	0.12mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	45d	1	0.18mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	15d	2	0.58mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	45d	1	0.98mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	23d	1	0.98mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	45d	1	1.02mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	1.03mi
132 Calvin Dr Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1652	$2,300	$1.39	15d	1	1.07mi
1216 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	45d	1	1.09mi
1224 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	45d	1	1.09mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	1.15mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	45d	1	1.17mi
816 N 4th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,100	$1.20	45d	1	1.18mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	15d	1	1.19mi
7811 86th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,025	$1.18	23d	1	1.27mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	23d	1	1.33mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	45d	1	1.36mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	23d	1	1.37mi
7729 92nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1810	$2,495	$1.38	23d	1	1.39mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	23d	1	1.42mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	15d	1	1.44mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	23d	1	1.44mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $315,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $315,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $325,000 Active
18. 2023-08-24
    price $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,764 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,491/yr (+$374/mo · 352.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$7,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,839
• After-tax cash flow: $-148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+441.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $325,000 LARMLS
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $60,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,274 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.