1508 Shadowood Trl · South Lebanon, OH 45039

$278,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Condo public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2007 $268/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfort and convenience in this beautifully maintained top-floor ranch condo in Maineville. Offering 1,600 sq ft of single-level living with cathedral ceilings, this home features a spacious layout designed for easy living. The kitchen includes a dishwasher, disposal, microwave, range, refrigerator, and elegant marble countertops. Enjoy relaxing or entertaining on your private deck, with a generous lot that provides a sense of space while maintaining low-maintenance condo living. The home includes 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths, including a primary suite with newer carpet (approx. 2.5 years old). Major updates include HVAC and water heater (2018), with HVAC recently serviced on April

Key facts

• Private deck
• Generous lot
• Desirable community

Tags

• TOP-FLOOR RANCH CONDO
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• PRIVATE DECK
• GENEROUS LOT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE CONDO LIVING
• DESIRABLE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in South Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#279 in OH, #4,589 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $279k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $253,483 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $154,890
• Equity at exit: $251,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.30×
• Total profit: $492,023
• Equity at exit: $541,841

Cash invested: $78,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,535 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,555/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$268
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,713

Max offer price $254,071

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,725
• Closing costs: $8,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 Grandin Rd Maineville, OH	2.0	2.0	1460	$4,200	$2.88	2d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $268 · $3,216/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $278,900 Active
3. 2026-04-13
   listed $278,900 Active
4. 2011-04-13
   historical
5. 2011-04-13
   historical
6. 2010-07-17
   listed $148,500
7. 2010-07-17
   listed $148,500
8. 2008-02-29
   soldstatus $145,900
9. 2008-01-18
   listed $145,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,555 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,953 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$398/yr (+$33/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,623
• − Property taxes: −$3,555
• − Insurance: −$1,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,433
• − Management: −$2,433
• − HOA: −$3,216
• − Depreciation: −$8,113
• Taxable loss: −$6,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,524
• After-tax cash flow: $-162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — South Lebanon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #4589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• City population: 7,053
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+91.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $278,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $278,900 Cincy MLS
• 2011-04-13 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2011-04-13 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2010-07-17 Listed $148,500 Cincy MLS
• 2010-07-17 Listed $148,500 Dayton MLS
• 2008-02-29 Sold (MLS) $145,900 Cincy MLS
• 2008-01-18 Listed $145,900 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,555 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.