4770 Elfreth Johnson Rd · Pinson, AL 35215

$152,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 265 Days on market

Built 1974 0.34 ac lot $106/sqft · at area comps Est $160k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home featuring a spacious layout and a large bonus room in the basement - perfect for a playroom, home office, or media space. Recent updates five this home a fresh, move-in ready feel. Conveniently located near the Autocar facility and just minutes from shopping, dining and major commuter routes.

Key facts

• Large bonus room
• Minutes from dining
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE BONUS ROOM
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.3% in Pinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,726
• List price: $152,000
• Delta: -4.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5791 Forest Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-6%)	11mo	$199,900	$147	51
5843 Walnut Grove Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,351 (-6%)	23mo	$145,000	$107	33
5835 Walnut Grove Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-13%)	16mo	$70,000	$56	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,360
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,357
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $716/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $152,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $267	+0% $224	+5% $181	+10% $138
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $167	+0% $224	+5% $281	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $263	base $224	+0.5pp $185	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
532 26th Ave NW Center Point, AL	4.0	1.0	1644	$1,250	$0.76	44d	1	1.31mi
2613 5th St NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,150	$0.98	12d	1	1.32mi
232 Glenvalley Ln NW Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	954	$1,610	$1.69	4d	1	1.36mi
202 Westchester Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	24d	1	1.43mi
5992 Princess Blvd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,661	$1.14	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,000 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,000 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,000 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,000 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,000 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $152,000 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,000 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,000 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $152,000 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 247 DOM
14. 2025-12-05
    price $152,000 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Wonderful updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home featuring a spacious layout and a large bonus room in the basement - perfect for a playroom, home office, or media space. Recent updates five this home a fresh, move-in ready feel. Conveniently located near the Autocar facility and just minutes from shopping, dining and major commuter routes.

15. 2025-09-26
    listed $174,000 Active 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Wonderful updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home featuring a spacious layout and a large bonus room in the basement - perfect for a playroom, home office, or media space. Recent updates five this home a fresh, move-in ready feel. Conveniently located near the Autocar facility and just minutes from shopping, dining and major commuter routes.

16. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus $150,000
17. 2021-11-19
    soldstatus $150,000 Sold 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Wonderful home located only minutes from the Autocar facility. Solid surface flooring, updated kitchen and baths! Large bonus room in the basement! Property sits back on the lot with plenty of privacy. Excellent family home or investment property. Check it out today!!!

18. 2021-10-15
    historical Contingent 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Wonderful home located only minutes from the Autocar facility. Solid surface flooring, updated kitchen and baths! Large bonus room in the basement! Property sits back on the lot with plenty of privacy. Excellent family home or investment property. Check it out today!!!

19. 2021-10-02
    listed $149,900 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Wonderful home located only minutes from the Autocar facility. Solid surface flooring, updated kitchen and baths! Large bonus room in the basement! Property sits back on the lot with plenty of privacy. Excellent family home or investment property. Check it out today!!!

20. 2019-06-13
    soldstatus $129,999
21. 2019-01-28
    soldstatus $52,000
22. 2009-08-12
    soldstatus $45,260
23. 1997-10-08
    soldstatus $66,000
24. 1974-07-01
    soldstatus $26,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $716 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $716 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$716
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,390
• − Management: −$1,390
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$45
• After-tax cash flow: $2,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Pinson

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #18763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinson, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 22,599
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+473.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $152,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $174,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-19 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-15 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-02 Listed $149,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $129,999 Public Records
• 2019-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $45,260 Public Records
• 1997-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 1974-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $716 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.