Is Ramsey Plan in Waller, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.8% cap rate and $-103/mo modeled cash flow at a $239,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Ramsey Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 5.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,063/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D Composite 40.11

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +11.1/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
DSCR +3.2/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Appreciation +2.9/10.0
Schools +2.8/10.0
Rent growth +1.6/5.0

$239,990

Ramsey Plan · Waller, TX 77484

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 591 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

Intimate dining area
Walk-in closet
Single-story design

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (1.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (14.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $206k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 591 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,288 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 591 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 5.80%
Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
DSCR: 0.92
GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $250,664
List price: $239,990
Delta: -4.26%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
377 Tejas Trl	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,601 (-4%)	0mo	$278,900	$174	88
363 Kingston Way	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,601 (-4%)	5mo	$281,900	$176	88
341 Grayson Baw Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,667 (0%)	6mo	$243,990	$146	84
309 Tejas Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-7%)	5mo	$282,900	$182	78
333 Fastboy Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-7%)	2mo	$272,900	$176	77
320 Kingston Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-7%)	7mo	$282,900	$182	70
305 Tejas Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	5mo	$240,990	$163	70
308 Tejas Trl	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+13%)	7mo	$266,990	$141	68
312 Tejas Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	7mo	$236,990	$161	68
337 Tejas Trl	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+13%)	8mo	$223,090	$118	65
429 Tejas Trl	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+12%)	8mo	$283,990	$153	65
337 Grayson Baw Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	6mo	$237,990	$161	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.6%
Equity multiple: 0.24×
Total profit: $-53,168
Equity at exit: $37,375

10-year hold

IRR: -27.1%
Equity multiple: -0.11×
Total profit: $-77,950
Equity at exit: $21,673

Cash invested: $70,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 29 active · 4 under contract
Months of supply: 29.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $274,900 ($177/sqft)
Median days on market: 40 d
This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -14.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

Home prices YoY: -1.0%
Rents YoY: -3.8%
Active inventory: 1496
Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,063 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,315
Tax est. 1.5%: −$313 /mo · $3,760/yr
Insurance: −$104
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,193

Max offer price $235,817

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $-16	+0% $-103	+5% $-189	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-184	+0% $-103	+5% $-21	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-39	base $-103	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-234

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $62,666
Closing costs: $7,520
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Fastboy Ln Waller, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,322	$1.19	0d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $239,990 Active 591 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $239,990 Active 589 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $239,990 Active 588 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $239,990 Active 587 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $239,990 Active 586 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $239,990 Active 583 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $239,990 Active 581 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $239,990 Active 580 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $239,990 Active 578 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $239,990 Active 576 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $239,990 Active 575 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $239,990 Active 574 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $239,990 Active 573 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $239,990 Active 572 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $239,990 Active 569 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $239,990 Active 568 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $239,990 Active 567 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $239,990 Active 566 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $239,990 Active 565 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $239,990 Active 564 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $239,990 Active 563 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $239,990 Active 562 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $239,990 Active 561 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $239,990 Active 559 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $239,990 Active 558 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $239,990 Active 557 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $239,990 Active 556 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $239,990 Active 555 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $239,990 Active 554 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $239,990 Active 553 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $239,990 Active 552 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $239,990 Active 551 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $239,990 Active 550 DOM
2026-06-27

pricedays on market $239,990 Active 549 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $243,990 Active 548 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $243,990 Active 546 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $243,990 Active 543 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $243,990 Active 540 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $243,990 Active 539 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $243,990 Active 538 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $243,990 Active 537 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $243,990 Active 535 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $243,990 Active 531 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $243,990 Active 530 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $243,990 Active 529 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $243,990 Active 526 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $243,990 Active 525 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $243,990 Active 524 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $243,990 Active 523 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $243,990 Active 522 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,755
− Mortgage interest: −$14,041
− Property taxes: −$3,760
− Insurance: −$1,253
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
− Management: −$1,980
− Depreciation: −$7,292
Taxable loss: −$5,553

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,333
After-tax cash flow: $101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor exterior updates and smart home additions.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

Score: 61/100
State rank: #1003
US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 60,772 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,348
Household income: $81,250
Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
Current HPI: 397.85
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2025-04-30 Price Changed $243,990 Zillow
2024-12-25 Listed $238,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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