2131 E Union Hills Dr Unit M1 · Phoenix, AZ 85024

$113,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 96 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition 3,900 sqft lot $116/sqft · 108% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living meets modern style in this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home in desirable Northeast Phoenix! Located in pet-friendly Buffalo Ridge Mobile Home Park, this move-in-ready home features an open-concept floor plan, updated flooring, modern fixtures, spacious living areas, and a bright kitchen with stainless steel appliances. The split-bedroom layout offers privacy, including a comfortable primary suite. Enjoy covered parking and a low-maintenance lifestyle in an all-ages community with resort-style amenities including a pool, clubhouse, dog park, playground, and basketball court. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, freeways, and Desert Ridge. Affordable land lease community.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Two-car parking
• Open-concept living

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO-CAR PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $113k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $113k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $782 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $113k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,057 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.85%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,362
• List price: $113,250
• Delta: 108.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2140 E Michigan Ave #35	0.13mi	3/2.0	990 (+1%)	1mo	$98,000	$99	91
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #125	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-2%)	1mo	$35,000	$36	75
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #16	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-3%)	3mo	$49,000	$51	71
18240 N 21st Dr #86	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (+4%)	14mo	$75,000	$73	67
1939 E Libby St	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	13mo	$175,000	$179	63
2701 E Utopia Rd #8	0.65mi	3/2.0	984 (+0%)	14mo	$72,000	$73	58
1926 E Grovers Ave	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-6%)	11mo	$260,000	$281	53
2701 E Utopia Rd #66	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (+4%)	10mo	$50,000	$49	49
17827 N 19th St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+12%)	12mo	$130,000	$119	48
1633 E Villa Rita Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,026 (+5%)	18mo	$145,000	$141	41
1701 E Villa Rita Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+8%)	15mo	$132,000	$125	40
2523 E Contention Mine Rd #27	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-14%)	8mo	$58,000	$69	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $17,422
• Equity at exit: $16,886

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $54,014
• Equity at exit: $9,792

Cash invested: $31,710 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85024

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$142 /mo · $1,699/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $113,250

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,312
• Closing costs: $3,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	4d	9	0.21mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,500	$2.08	4d	7	0.22mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.28mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,955	$2.03	2d	11	0.29mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.29mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	0.48mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	24d	1	0.52mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,637	$1.63	1d	12	0.79mi
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,933	$1.93	2d	22	0.95mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,349	$1.93	24d	1	0.97mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,770	$1.95	1d	10	1.06mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,390	$2.60	2d	16	1.07mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	24d	1	1.10mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	24d	1	1.12mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,083	$2.18	2d	93	1.16mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,964	$2.30	3d	62	1.20mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	1.23mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	22d	1	1.23mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	4d	6	1.23mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	24d	1	1.23mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	24d	1	1.23mi
16816 N 29th St Apt 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	7d	1	1.26mi
16815 N 29th St Apt 146 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	24d	1	1.30mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.23	16d	3	1.33mi
16815 N 29th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,199	$1.41	24d	1	1.33mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	2d	12	1.34mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	7d	1	1.37mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	20d	1	1.37mi
3301 E Wescott Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,995	$1.81	24d	1	1.39mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,017	$2.11	2d	35	1.45mi
16033 N 25th St Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $113,250 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $113,250 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $113,250 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $113,250 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $113,250 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $113,250 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,750 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,750 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,750 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,750 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,750 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,750 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,750 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,750 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-03-28
    price $114,750 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Affordable living meets modern style in this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home in desirable Northeast Phoenix! Located in pet-friendly Buffalo Ridge Mobile Home Park, this move-in-ready home features an open-concept floor plan, updated flooring, modern fixtures, spacious living areas, and a bright kitchen with stainless steel appliances. The split-bedroom layout offers privacy, including a comfortable primary suite. Enjoy covered parking and a low-maintenance lifestyle in an all-ages community with resort-style amenities including a pool, clubhouse, dog park, playground, and basketball court. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, freeways, and Desert Ridge. Affordable land lease community.

16. 2026-03-14
    listed $119,750 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    Affordable living meets modern style in this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home in desirable Northeast Phoenix! Located in pet-friendly Buffalo Ridge Mobile Home Park, this move-in-ready home features an open-concept floor plan, updated flooring, modern fixtures, spacious living areas, and a bright kitchen with stainless steel appliances. The split-bedroom layout offers privacy, including a comfortable primary suite. Enjoy covered parking and a low-maintenance lifestyle in an all-ages community with resort-style amenities including a pool, clubhouse, dog park, playground, and basketball court. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, freeways, and Desert Ridge. Affordable land lease community.

17. 2025-12-30
    historical
18. 2025-05-03
    status Active
19. 2025-04-27
    historical
20. 2025-03-19
    price $114,000
21. 2024-11-21
    price $124,900
22. 2024-11-11
    price $129,900
23. 2024-11-02
    price $135,000
24. 2024-10-30
    price $139,900
25. 2024-10-16
    listed $144,900 Active
26. 2023-04-12
    soldstatus $68,000 Closed
27. 2023-03-30
    status Pending
28. 2023-03-24
    listed $64,900 Active
29. 2023-03-02
    historical
30. 2023-02-04
    price $80,000
31. 2022-12-08
    price $95,000
32. 2022-12-07
    status Active
33. 2022-12-01
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
34. 2022-10-27
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,344
• − Property taxes: −$1,699
• − Insurance: −$566
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$3,295
• Taxable income: $5,788
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,389
• After-tax cash flow: $5,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home in Buffalo Ridge Mobile Home Park offers an open-concept floor plan, updated flooring, and modern fixtures. The split-bedroom layout provides privacy, and the low-maintenance lifestyle is ideal for an all-ages community with resort-style amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — neutral paint color
• Both update flooring in kitchen — update with modern flooring
• Both update kitchen cabinets — update with modern cabinets

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — neutral paint color ↑
• Both update flooring in kitchen — update with modern flooring ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — update with modern cabinets ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 26,199
• Household income: $106,724
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 547.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.95%
• Current HPI: 312.7238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+9.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $114,750 ARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $119,750 ARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-03 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-04-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $114,000 ARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $124,900 ARMLS
• 2024-11-11 Price Changed $129,900 ARMLS
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $139,900 ARMLS
• 2024-10-16 Listed $144,900 ARMLS
• 2023-04-12 Sold (MLS) $68,000 ARMLS
• 2023-03-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-03-24 Listed $64,900 ARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-02-04 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2022-12-08 Price Changed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2022-12-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-12-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-10-27 Listed $105,000 ARMLS