5807 Virginia Ave · Lubbock, TX 79407

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Townhouse public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,255 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this luxurious 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the highly sought-after Frenship School District. This property is For Sale and/or also for Rent. Pre-Leasing for July 1, 2026 Move-In. This stunning property boasts a 2 car garage, front and back yard irrigation system and central heat & air. With easy access to Marsha Sharp Freeway, commuting is a breeze. Washer, Dryer & Refrigerator can convey with an acceptable offer. Don't miss out on the opportunity to call this beautiful house your home. Call today to schedule a tour! Schools: Bennett Elementary, Frenship Middle School, Frenship High School.

Key facts

• Bennett elementary
• Frenship high school
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• BENNETT ELEMENTARY
• FRENSHIP MIDDLE SCHOOL
• FRENSHIP HIGH SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-979/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $178,242 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-43,566
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-64,522
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,951/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $190,589

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5805 Virginia Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,800	$1.31	44d	1	0.02mi
5865 Virginia Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,749	$1.17	44d	1	0.17mi
6003 Venita Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	44d	1	0.21mi
6313 Volney Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1006	$1,495	$1.49	21d	1	0.34mi
1517 Westminister Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,600	$1.03	14d	1	0.99mi
1218 Preston TRL Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,500	$1.06	21d	1	1.18mi
7036 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,895	$1.18	21d	1	1.23mi
7024 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	44d	1	1.28mi
7022 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	44d	1	1.28mi
3518 Turner Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	44d	1	1.40mi
7222 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,935	$1.33	44d	1	1.48mi
7413 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,475	$1.18	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $205,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $205,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $210,000 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Welcome to this luxurious 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the highly sought-after Frenship School District. This property is For Sale and/or also for Rent. Pre-Leasing for July 1, 2026 Move-In. This stunning property boasts a 2 car garage, front and back yard irrigation system and central heat & air. With easy access to Marsha Sharp Freeway, commuting is a breeze. Washer, Dryer & Refrigerator can convey with an acceptable offer. Don't miss out on the opportunity to call this beautiful house your home. Call today to schedule a tour! Schools: Bennett Elementary, Frenship Middle School, Frenship High School.

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $1,950
18. 2026-03-20
    historical $1,950
19. 2026-03-09
    price $1,950
20. 2026-01-09
    listed $2,000
21. 2025-05-19
    soldstatus
22. 2025-05-12
    soldstatus Closed 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    New Townhomes in Escondido built by Nesloney Homes, perfectly built for ease of ownership or as a great investment. All units are 3/2/2 with a flex area with unlimited possibilities to fit your lifestyle. Each has a privacy fenced backyard and large double car garage. Great homes for those looking for minimum upkeep in a great location in Frenship ISD.

23. 2025-04-15
    status Pending 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    New Townhomes in Escondido built by Nesloney Homes, perfectly built for ease of ownership or as a great investment. All units are 3/2/2 with a flex area with unlimited possibilities to fit your lifestyle. Each has a privacy fenced backyard and large double car garage. Great homes for those looking for minimum upkeep in a great location in Frenship ISD.

24. 2025-01-01
    listed $197,000 Active 354-char remark

    Show marketing remark (354 chars)

    New Townhomes in Escondido built by Nesloney Homes, perfectly built for ease of ownership or as a great investment. All units are 3/2/2 with a flex area with unlimited possibilities to fit your lifestyle. Each has a privacy fenced backyard and large double car garage. Great homes for those looking for minimum upkeep in a great location in Frenship ISD.

25. 2024-09-16
    price $197,000
26. 2023-10-05
    soldstatus Closed
27. 2023-09-13
    historical
28. 2023-09-11
    price $199,000
29. 2023-08-29
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,951 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,951 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,389
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,951
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $90/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready townhouse in the Frenship School District offers a good investment opportunity with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Modernizes look and improves energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modernizes look and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $210,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed for Rent $1,950 LARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Rental Removed $1,950 LARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $1,950 LARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed for Rent $2,000 LARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-12 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Pending — LARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $197,000 LARMLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $197,000 LARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2023-09-13 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $199,000 LARMLS
• 2023-08-29 Listed $205,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+117.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,951 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.