2230 Harnage St · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$99,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 247 Days on market

Built 1970 6,969 sqft lot $69/sqft · 20% above area Est $83k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom Mobile Home with lot included!!! Take advantage of this great opportunity!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($692 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $100k implies a 1011% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.91%
• DSCR: 2.38
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,201
• List price: $99,990
• Delta: 20.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1642 Curran Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$130,000	$90	82
2418 Mason Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	17mo	$95,000	$76	56
2404 Clark St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$80,000	$60	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $72,152
• Equity at exit: $60,038

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $177,058
• Equity at exit: $106,520

Cash invested: $27,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,116/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $99,990

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $778	-5% $749	+0% $721	+5% $693	+10% $664
Rent	-10% $583	-5% $652	+0% $721	+5% $790	+10% $859
Rate	-1.0pp $771	-0.5pp $747	base $721	+0.5pp $695	+1.0pp $669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,998
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,990 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,990 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,990 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,990 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,990 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,990 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,990 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,990 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,990 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,990 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,990 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,990 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,990 Active 231 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,990 Active 230 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,990 Active 229 DOM
16. 2026-04-03
    status Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Three bedroom Mobile Home with lot included!!! Take advantage of this great opportunity!

17. 2026-04-02
    status Active 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Affordable home in the scenic Kern River Valley. Spacious Layout, Large Lot, Convenient Parking, Affordable living, Prime Location! Seller can finance with $10,000 down payment. Take advantage of this great opportunity!!!!!

18. 2026-02-04
    status Pending Sale 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Affordable home in the scenic Kern River Valley. Spacious Layout, Large Lot, Convenient Parking, Affordable living, Prime Location! Seller can finance with $10,000 down payment. Take advantage of this great opportunity!!!!!

19. 2026-02-04
    status Pending 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Affordable home in the scenic Kern River Valley. Spacious Layout, Large Lot, Convenient Parking, Affordable living, Prime Location! Seller can finance with $10,000 down payment. Take advantage of this great opportunity!!!!!

20. 2026-02-02
    status Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Three bedroom Mobile Home with lot included!!! Take advantage of this great opportunity!

21. 2026-01-31
    status Active 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Affordable home in the scenic Kern River Valley. Spacious Layout, Large Lot, Convenient Parking, Affordable living, Prime Location! Seller can finance with $10,000 down payment. Take advantage of this great opportunity!!!!!

22. 2026-01-27
    status Pending Sale 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Affordable home in the scenic Kern River Valley. Spacious Layout, Large Lot, Convenient Parking, Affordable living, Prime Location! Seller can finance with $10,000 down payment. Take advantage of this great opportunity!!!!!

23. 2026-01-27
    status Pending 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Affordable home in the scenic Kern River Valley. Spacious Layout, Large Lot, Convenient Parking, Affordable living, Prime Location! Seller can finance with $10,000 down payment. Take advantage of this great opportunity!!!!!

24. 2025-08-12
    listed $99,990 Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Affordable home in the scenic Kern River Valley. Spacious Layout, Large Lot, Convenient Parking, Affordable living, Prime Location! Seller can finance with $10,000 down payment. Take advantage of this great opportunity!!!!!

25. 2025-08-12
    listed $99,990 Active 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    Affordable home in the scenic Kern River Valley. Spacious Layout, Large Lot, Convenient Parking, Affordable living, Prime Location! Seller can finance with $10,000 down payment. Take advantage of this great opportunity!!!!!

26. 2016-07-21
    price $39,900
27. 2016-06-28
    price $42,900
28. 2016-02-03
    price $45,900
29. 1980-01-31
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 10 d/yr ≥93°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,116
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $7,484
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,796
• After-tax cash flow: $6,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1011.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-02-04 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-02-04 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-31 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-01-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Pending — GEMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $99,990 GEMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $99,990 CRMLS
• 2016-07-21 Price Changed $39,900 GEMLS
• 2016-06-28 Price Changed $42,900 GEMLS
• 2016-02-03 Price Changed $45,900 GEMLS
• 1980-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,116 · +477.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.