470 Waterboy Rd · Fairburn, GA 30213

$229,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,578 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1983 0.37 ac lot Est $298k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this well maintained two story residence in the quiet and inviting Southern Pines subdivision in Fairburn . Built in 1983 and situated on a spacious 0.367- acre lot, this property offers a comfortable layout, mature shade trees in both the front and back yard, and the rare benefit no HOA. The main level features a living room with new vinyl flooring, with a fireplace, a separate dining room with new vinyl flooring, also the kitchen and laundry have new vinyl flooring, new wood steps replaced on first story going to second story, a functional floor plan with approximately 744 square feet on the first floor and 834 square feet on the second floor for a total living square feet

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Freshly painted
• Well maintained

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Resale property
• Construction: Built in 1983
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Brick and vinyl siding; City lot; Park nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric water heater; Laundry area located in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two-story home)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Family room with a fireplace; Separate dining room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Fairburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#291 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bear Creek Middle School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #339 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 1,108 students, 100% FRL); Creekside High School (math 30% / reading 24%, grade F, #160 of 424 statewide, top 38%, 1,768 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 41% district-wide (59 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-27 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 531 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $230k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,162 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.27%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,242
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
430 Mary Erna Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-10%)	0mo	$270,000	$189	77
600 Mary Erna Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (-7%)	13mo	$275,000	$188	58
7235 Magnolia Ln	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,423 (-10%)	13mo	$325,000	$228	53
620 Blue Flag Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-11%)	7mo	$264,900	$189	43
614 Blue Flag Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+10%)	9mo	$240,000	$138	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-20,343
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,072
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30213

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,139/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $229,999

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $413	-5% $348	+0% $283	+5% $218	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $195	+0% $283	+5% $371	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $399	-0.5pp $341	base $283	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6460 Lake Esther Dr Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	44d	1	0.40mi
6460 Lake Esther Dr Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	1300	$1,997	$1.54	11d	1	0.40mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	21d	1	1.08mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	25d	1	1.08mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	44d	1	1.08mi
220 Splitwood Ln Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,850	$1.30	6d	1	1.08mi
486 Samara Ct Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	2002	$2,495	$1.25	25d	1	1.12mi
200 Dodd St Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,685	$1.30	44d	1	1.15mi
365 Elder St Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1084	$1,625	$1.50	25d	1	1.15mi
152 Rivertown Rd Fairburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1550	$3,500	$2.26	22d	1	1.18mi
165 Fireside Way Fairburn, GA	4.0	3.0	2230	$2,396	$1.07	44d	1	1.25mi
6510 Saint Mark Way Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,324	$1.06	44d	1	1.25mi
8317 Hunters Grove Rd Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1821	$5,500	$3.02	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $229,999 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,999 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $229,999 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on marketlisting id $229,999 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $229,999 Under Contract 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,999 New 4 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,999 New 3 DOM
8. 2026-04-25
   listed $229,999 New
9. 1988-05-06
   soldstatus $75,863
10. 1988-05-01
    soldstatus $75,900
11. 1987-02-13
    soldstatus $70,000
12. 1983-10-07
    soldstatus $59,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,139 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,139 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,139
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$88
• After-tax cash flow: $3,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fairburn

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #15939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairburn, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 50,621
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 50,621
• Household income: $94,125
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1025.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Arab 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.66%
• Current HPI: 235.9372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+284.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $229,999 GAMLS
• 1988-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $75,863 Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records
• 1987-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1983-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $59,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,139 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.