200 Dog Wood Dr · Pine Harbor, TX 75657

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2014 7,667 sqft lot $4/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and cozy one-bedroom, one-bath home located at Lake O the Pines. This home has 540 sq. ft. of comfortable living space featuring an updated modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances, a spacious living area with fireplace, and thoughtful details throughout. Enjoy relaxing on the covered front porch overlooking the fenced yard, perfect for pets or outdoor gatherings. A convenient storage building provides additional space for tools or hobbies. Property also has 30 amp plug for RV hookup. Ideal for a weekend getaway, downsizing, or investment property near Historic Jefferson, TX. Just blocks away from the boat ramp and fishing dock for the avid fisherman. Don’t miss this affordable and move-in-ready gem! Call to see today.

Key facts

• Turn-key convenience
• Fully fenced
• Inviting front porch

Tags

• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED
• MOVE-IN OR RENTAL-READY
• PRIME LOCATION
• TURN-KEY CONVENIENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on an irregular lot of approximately 0.176 acres
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $50 annual fee (about $4.17/month)

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Corner, level lot
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Wood fence; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($248/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,494 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #689 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 275 students, 75% FRL); Jefferson J H (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 333 students, 73% FRL); Jefferson H S (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 380 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 43% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 194 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,460 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.89%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-14,911
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-11,449
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75657

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $451/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $768

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $49	+0% $21	+5% $-8	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-42	-5% $-11	+0% $21	+5% $52	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $46	base $21	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $451 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,377/yr (+$115/mo · 305.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$451
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$763
• − Management: −$763
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$358
• After-tax cash flow: $606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,504
• Composite: 22.93/100
• National rank: #7992
• State rank: #689 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Harbor

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1494
• US rank: #25521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Harbor, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,842

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,339 people
• By 2030: 8,881 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 8,044 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 7,449 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 6,638 · -28.9%
• By 2100: 5,871 · -37.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.5) · D 23.4% · R 75.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -52.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+43.1 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.60%
• Current HPI: 126.2671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+81.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $99,900 LAAR
• 2026-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-20 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2026-02-04 Pending — LAAR
• 2025-11-10 Listed $75,500 LAAR
• 2023-10-31 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2023-10-02 Pending — LAAR
• 2023-09-01 Relisted — LAAR
• 2023-08-08 Delisted — LAAR
• 2023-08-02 Listed $55,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $451 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.