1645 7th. St · Mills, MI 48756

$77,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2003 $62/sqft · at area comps Est $79k · at est. ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this wonderful location and make this affordable ranch your own. Set in a growing area with something for everyone, this home is perfect whether you’re ready to retire, work, or simply play. The lifestyle here truly has it all. Opportunities like this don’t last long—don’t wait on this one.

Key facts

• Built 2003
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Whittemore-Prescott Area Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #488 of 540 in MI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $72,380 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.09%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,352
• List price: $77,000
• Delta: -2.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1900 Third Oak St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+2%)	14mo	$59,900	$48	56
5279 Oak	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+2%)	18mo	$38,000	$30	55
5279 Oak	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+2%)	18mo	$38,000	$30	55
5347 Oak Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-14%)	2mo	$116,000	$109	48
5316 Chippewa Trl	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,328 (+8%)	16mo	$106,000	$80	44
1549 E Greenwood Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (+2%)	20mo	$83,000	$66	42
1931 Tammy Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-7%)	19mo	$105,000	$92	42
5276 Silver Creek Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-12%)	9mo	$72,000	$66	40
5312 Oakhill Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,375 (+12%)	22mo	$128,647	$94	27
5329 Skunk Hollow Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-11%)	23mo	$45,000	$41	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $11,653
• Equity at exit: $11,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $41,203
• Equity at exit: $6,658

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48756

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $718/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $77,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $77,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $77,000 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Enjoy this wonderful location and make this affordable ranch your own. Set in a growing area with something for everyone, this home is perfect whether you're ready to retire, work, or simply play. The lifestyle here truly has it all. Opportunities like this don't last long-don't wait on this one.

17. 2026-05-09
    price $77,000 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Enjoy this wonderful location and make this affordable ranch your own. Set in a growing area with something for everyone, this home is perfect whether you're ready to retire, work, or simply play. The lifestyle here truly has it all. Opportunities like this don't last long-don't wait on this one.

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $89,900 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Enjoy this wonderful location and make this affordable ranch your own. Set in a growing area with something for everyone, this home is perfect whether you're ready to retire, work, or simply play. The lifestyle here truly has it all. Opportunities like this don't last long-don't wait on this one.

19. 2026-03-25
    listed $89,900 Active 297-char remark

    Show marketing remark (297 chars)

    Enjoy this wonderful location and make this affordable ranch your own. Set in a growing area with something for everyone, this home is perfect whether you're ready to retire, work, or simply play. The lifestyle here truly has it all. Opportunities like this don't last long-don't wait on this one.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $718 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$19/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$718
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $3,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$841
• After-tax cash flow: $3,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whittemore-Prescott Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2636390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $30,244
• Composite: 14.31/100
• National rank: #9442
• State rank: #488 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Skidway Lake, MI
• Population (ZIP): 3,939

Population outlook (Ogemaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,373 people
• By 2030: 18,348 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 16,176 · -16.5%
• By 2050: 14,294 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 11,280 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 8,942 · -53.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogemaw

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.0) · D 28.4% · R 70.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.0 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+36.6 2012: R+6.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.88%
• Current HPI: 213.8025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $77,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $77,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-25 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-25 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $718 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.