516 Old Western Pass · Sonterra, TX 76537

$228,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Other · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 4,983 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You enter the home and are immediately welcomed into the open family room, kitchen, and dining area—designed for comfortable, connected living. Just off the family room, you’ll find access to the two-car garage, a laundry room, and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bath. From the dining area, a covered patio offers space to relax outdoors. Also off the dining space is the primary bedroom, complete with a walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

Key facts

• Private primary bath
• Walk-in closet
• Open family room

Tags

• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Cool Water; HOA fee $25 per month (covers common area maintenance); Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, park, sport court(s), trails/paths, barbecue, community mailbox, dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-facing garage; Garage door opener; Two covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Phone available; Municipal sewer; Municipal water
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by Starlight Homes; East-facing; Has a view; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding and masonry; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front, rear, and side; Interior, level lot; Back yard privacy wood fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Electric cooktop; Exhaust fan; Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Walk-in closet(s) in primary
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Main level primary bedroom; Recessed lighting; Blinds; Double-pane ENERGY STAR windows; Window screens
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($830/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Sonterra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $190,909 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,271
• Equity at exit: $34,069

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-49,507
• Equity at exit: $19,756

Cash invested: $63,977 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,198
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $228,490

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $134	+0% $69	+5% $5	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-6	+0% $69	+5% $145	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $127	base $69	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,122
• Closing costs: $6,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.11mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.25mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	4d	1	0.28mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.29mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.30mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.31mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.35mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.38mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.90mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	45d	1	0.91mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	5d	1	1.01mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	1.04mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	1.04mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	1.17mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.22mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.43mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.44mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	19d	1	1.47mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,490 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 457-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $228,490 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,181 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,734/yr (+$228/mo · 189.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,447
• − Insurance: −$1,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,647
• Taxable loss: −$3,092
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$742
• After-tax cash flow: $1,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $228,490 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-15.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,447 · -15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.