419 Halcyon Pl · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$1,450,000

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 2022 4,876 sqft lot Est $1599k · 9% under $499/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Significant Price Reduction for quick sale! Waterfront Dreams Really Do Come True with this amazing opportunity to purchase substantially below market value and $270k below original builder price! This move-in ready Davidson Edgewater model features luxury builder upgrades, designer features, model finishes and many after market improvements! Competitively priced and loaded with value! Too many amenities to list, but you'll feel like you're living in a model home! Chef’s kitchen features expanded island w/ quartz countertops, sub-zero SS appliances, 48” Wolf gas range, dual dishwashers, Snack Alley complete with dual 24" SS beverage fridges & wet bar. Engineered hardw

Key facts

• Dual dishwashers
• Quartz countertops
• Sub-zero appliances

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• EXPANDED ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SUB-ZERO APPLIANCES
• 48 INCH WOLF GAS RANGE
• DUAL DISHWASHERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $1.45M).
• Recommended offer: $1.28M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.7% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $155k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $145k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $406k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$249k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,276,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,598,586
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Halcyon Pl	0.00mi	4/4.5	3,504 (+0%)	1mo	$1,450,000	$414	97
413 Halcyon Pl	0.01mi	4/4.0	3,384 (-3%)	9mo	$1,287,000	$380	82
380 Navigators	0.13mi	4/5.0	3,842 (+10%)	14mo	$1,900,000	$495	66
349 Navigator's Pl	0.11mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,331 (-5%)	18mo	$1,499,000	$450	64
3155 Delta Cvs	0.37mi	4/3.5	3,332 (-5%)	7mo	$1,875,000	$563	63
3389 Delta Coves Dr	0.10mi	4/5.5	3,847 (+10%)	18mo	$1,600,000	$416	62
3371 Delta Coves Dr	0.10mi	4/4.5	3,887 (+11%)	22mo	$1,775,000	$457	57
291 Waterside Pl	0.23mi	4/4.5	3,882 (+11%)	21mo	$1,800,000	$464	52
34 Grey Whale Pl	0.53mi	4/5.0	3,882 (+11%)	21mo	$2,000,000	$515	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $911,708
• Equity at exit: $1,306,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $2,591,538
• Equity at exit: $2,817,031

Cash invested: $406,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,541 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax from tax record: −$2,460 /mo · $29,521/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$499
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,474
• Net cashflow: $1,901

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,136

Max offer price $1,450,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,721	-5% $2,311	+0% $1,901	+5% $1,490	+10% $1,080
Rent	-10% $594	-5% $1,247	+0% $1,901	+5% $2,554	+10% $3,207
Rate	-1.0pp $2,631	-0.5pp $2,269	base $1,901	+0.5pp $1,525	+1.0pp $1,143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,500
• Closing costs: $43,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
407 Halcyon Pl Bethel Island, CA	4.0	5.5	3851	$20,000	$5.19	0d	1	0.03mi
98 Edgewater Ct Bethel Island, CA	4.0	5.0	3900	$6,500	$1.67	0d	1	0.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $499 · $5,988/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   price $1,450,000
3. 2026-03-06
   price $1,549,000
4. 2026-01-17
   price $1,580,000
5. 2026-01-09
   price $1,590,000
6. 2026-01-02
   price $1,600,000
7. 2025-12-26
   price $1,610,000
8. 2025-12-19
   price $1,620,000
9. 2025-12-12
   price $1,630,000
10. 2025-12-05
    price $1,640,000
11. 2025-11-30
    price $1,650,000
12. 2025-11-24
    price $1,660,000
13. 2025-11-15
    price $1,670,000
14. 2025-10-31
    listed $1,680,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $29,521 · $2,460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $29,521 · $2,460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $198,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,223
• − Property taxes: −$29,521
• − Insurance: −$7,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,880
• − Management: −$15,880
• − HOA: −$5,988
• − Depreciation: −$42,182
• Taxable income: $574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $22,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $1,450,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $1,549,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $1,580,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $1,590,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $1,600,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $1,610,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $1,620,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $1,630,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $1,640,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $1,650,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $1,660,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $1,670,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-31 Listed $1,680,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+18.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $29,521 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.