5809 NW 18th Ter · Bell, FL 32619

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,988 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2006 1.04 ac lot $101/sqft · 26% below area Est $269k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a full acre in the tranquil Suwannee River Estates—perfect for those seeking peaceful rural living with added privacy. This fully fenced property offers a thoughtful layout featuring a welcoming living room, dining room, and a separate family room for added flexibility. The eat-in kitchen provides a comfortable space for everyday meals and gatherings. The primary suite includes an en suite bathroom with both a soaking tub and walk-in shower, along with a generous walk-in closet. Enjoy the outdoors from both the front and rear porches, expanding your living space and creating ideal spots to relax or entertain. Recent upgrades include a brand-new roof and HVAC system, offering peace of mind and helping ensure the home meets insurance and lending requirements. This property combines space, comfort, and practicality in a serene setting.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Fully fenced
• Soaking tub

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• FULLY FENCED
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.8% in Bell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#767 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $200k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.79%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,021
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -25.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6367 NW 16th Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,856 (-7%)	9mo	$219,000	$118	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $131,672
• Equity at exit: $179,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.59×
• Total profit: $369,268
• Equity at exit: $387,416

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32619

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-03-20
    listed $200,000 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a full acre in the tranquil Suwannee River Estates—perfect for those seeking peaceful rural living with added privacy. This fully fenced property offers a thoughtful layout featuring a welcoming living room, dining room, and a separate family room for added flexibility. The eat-in kitchen provides a comfortable space for everyday meals and gatherings. The primary suite includes an en suite bathroom with both a soaking tub and walk-in shower, along with a generous walk-in closet. Enjoy the outdoors from both the front and rear porches, expanding your living space and creating ideal spots to relax or entertain. Recent upgrades include a brand-new roof and HVAC system, offering peace of mind and helping ensure the home meets insurance and lending requirements. This property combines space, comfort, and practicality in a serene setting.

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $200,000 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a full acre in the tranquil Suwannee River Estates—perfect for those seeking peaceful rural living with added privacy. This fully fenced property offers a thoughtful layout featuring a welcoming living room, dining room, and a separate family room for added flexibility. The eat-in kitchen provides a comfortable space for everyday meals and gatherings. The primary suite includes an en suite bathroom with both a soaking tub and walk-in shower, along with a generous walk-in closet. Enjoy the outdoors from both the front and rear porches, expanding your living space and creating ideal spots to relax or entertain. Recent upgrades include a brand-new roof and HVAC system, offering peace of mind and helping ensure the home meets insurance and lending requirements. This property combines space, comfort, and practicality in a serene setting.

18. 2005-12-16
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$947/yr (+$79/mo · 132.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$267
• After-tax cash flow: $4,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilchrist
• NCES district ID: 1200630
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,610
• Composite: 53.01/100
• National rank: #1522
• State rank: #9 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bell

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #767
• US rank: #17229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,227
• Population (ZIP): 5,227

Population outlook (Gilchrist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,730 people
• By 2030: 17,722 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 17,393 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 16,597 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 14,300 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,498 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilchrist

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.98%
• Current HPI: 404.4164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $200,000 NFMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.