2523 - 2525 Holmes St · Rockford, IL 61108

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,501 sqft · MultiFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1965 Est $250k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Owner-occupied for over 20 years, this well-maintained duplex truly reflects pride of ownership throughout. Both units have been carefully cared for, with all major components in good working condition, making this an excellent opportunity for an investor or owner-occupant. The property is exceptionally clean and move-in ready, offering comfortable and functional living spaces in each unit. Major updates include a roof replacement in 2023, along with gutters replaced the same year, giving peace of mind to the next owner. The 2525 unit features a newer furnace and A/C unit, while the 2523 side has been consistently maintained with all systems in proper working order.

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Built 1965
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $228/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cherry Valley Elementary School (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,224 of 2,056 statewide, top 60%, 639 students, 0% FRL); Bernard W Flinn Middle School (math 5% / reading 9%, grade F, #627 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 830 students, 0% FRL); Rockford East High School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 1,718 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,460/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $220k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2523 - 2525 Holmes St	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,501 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$100	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,354
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $102,097
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61108

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,915/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,884

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $580	-5% $517	+0% $455	+5% $393	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $261	-5% $358	+0% $455	+5% $552	+10% $649
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $511	base $455	+0.5pp $398	+1.0pp $340

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,460
Total (2 units)			$2,460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3516 Constance Dr Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	2400	$1,795	$0.75	22d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $220,000 Active
3. 1996-09-10
   soldstatus $102,500
4. 1995-08-11
   soldstatus $102,500
5. 1993-10-07
   soldstatus $92,000
6. 1993-10-07
   soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,915 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,955 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,039/yr (+$87/mo · 35.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,915
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $2,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$494
• After-tax cash flow: $4,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,355
• Household income: $64,415
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1199.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 3% Arab 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.38%
• Current HPI: 218.6339
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+139.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $220,000 NWIAR
• 1996-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 1995-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 1993-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1993-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,915 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.