465 Mt Airy Rd · Mount Royal, PA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 3/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 6.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +8.1/10.0
- 1% rule +6.3/10.0
- Schools +4.1/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$344,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Beautiful location for this early 1800's Schoolhouse w/ modern 1965 addition. Exposed beams, open 20x13 loft & cathedral ceilings in the 20x20 kit (formerly the school). Heated floors in FR, DR & bath. FR w/ exposed beams/stone FP. Large wrap around porch, deck and above ground pool. Detached, oversized 2 car garage w/ workshop. 5 year old septic system and well pump. Watch the deer and see Ski Roundtop lights while sitting on your porch. Must see!
Key facts
- 2.76 acre lot
- 2 garage spots
- Pool
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Detached oversized garage with 2 spaces; Driveway parking
- Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Electric hot water; Electric cooling
- Home design: Detached structure; Estimated year built
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone and block foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Garage(s) and other above-grade structures
- Exterior features: Partly wooded, rural setting; Outbuilding(s); Deck(s); Above-ground personal pool
Interior
- Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
- Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
- Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate plank; Carpet
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wood-burning stove; Propane (leased) fuel; Central air conditioning (electric)
- Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Wood stove; Exposed beams; Drywall and log walls
- Laundry & utility: Electric hot water
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $747 ($9k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $345k).
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Northern York County SD (rural): math 35% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #223 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Negotiation context
- Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $205k; list at $345k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.13% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.89%
- Cash-on-cash
- 9.28%
- DSCR
- 1.41
- GRM
- 7.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $487,970
- List price
- $344,900
- Delta
- -29.32%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 8 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 450 Stone Jug Rd | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 | 1,924 (-11%) | 8mo | $513,005 | $267 | 50 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -2.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.91×
- Total profit
- $-8,279
- Equity at exit
- $51,426
- IRR
- 7.4%
- Equity multiple
- 1.56×
- Total profit
- $54,175
- Equity at exit
- $29,821
Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 17339
- Home prices YoY
- -23.2%
- Active inventory
- 48
- Price-to-rent
- 7.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,900 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,809
- Tax from tax record
- −$382 /mo · $4,578/yr
- Insurance
- −$144
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$819
- Net cashflow
- $747
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $942 | -5% $845 | +0% $747 | +5% $649 | +10% $552 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $439 | -5% $593 | +0% $747 | +5% $901 | +10% $1,055 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $921 | -0.5pp $835 | base $747 | +0.5pp $658 | +1.0pp $567 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $86,225
- Closing costs
- $10,347
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1365 Roundtop Rd Lewisberry, PA | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1998 | $3,900 | $1.95 | 22d | 1 | 1.17mi |
Listing history 10 events
-
2026-05-08status Pending 1296-char remark
-
2026-05-02$344,900 Active 1296-char remark
-
2026-04-28historical $344,900 1296-char remark
-
2016-08-02soldstatus $205,000
-
2016-07-29historical
Show marketing remark (464 chars)
Beautiful location for this early 1800's Schoolhouse w/ modern 1965 addition. Exposed beams, open 20x13 loft & cathedral ceilings in the 20x20 kit (formerly the school). Heated floors in FR, DR & bath. FR w/ exposed beams/stone FP. Large wrap around porch, deck and above ground pool. Detached, oversized 2 car garage w/ workshop. 5 year old septic system and well pump. Watch the deer and see Ski Roundtop lights while sitting on your porch. Must see!
-
2016-07-29soldstatus $205,000
Show marketing remark (464 chars)
Beautiful location for this early 1800's Schoolhouse w/ modern 1965 addition. Exposed beams, open 20x13 loft & cathedral ceilings in the 20x20 kit (formerly the school). Heated floors in FR, DR & bath. FR w/ exposed beams/stone FP. Large wrap around porch, deck and above ground pool. Detached, oversized 2 car garage w/ workshop. 5 year old septic system and well pump. Watch the deer and see Ski Roundtop lights while sitting on your porch. Must see!
-
2016-06-04historical
Show marketing remark (464 chars)
Beautiful location for this early 1800's Schoolhouse w/ modern 1965 addition. Exposed beams, open 20x13 loft & cathedral ceilings in the 20x20 kit (formerly the school). Heated floors in FR, DR & bath. FR w/ exposed beams/stone FP. Large wrap around porch, deck and above ground pool. Detached, oversized 2 car garage w/ workshop. 5 year old septic system and well pump. Watch the deer and see Ski Roundtop lights while sitting on your porch. Must see!
-
2015-11-11$205,000
Show marketing remark (464 chars)
Beautiful location for this early 1800's Schoolhouse w/ modern 1965 addition. Exposed beams, open 20x13 loft & cathedral ceilings in the 20x20 kit (formerly the school). Heated floors in FR, DR & bath. FR w/ exposed beams/stone FP. Large wrap around porch, deck and above ground pool. Detached, oversized 2 car garage w/ workshop. 5 year old septic system and well pump. Watch the deer and see Ski Roundtop lights while sitting on your porch. Must see!
-
2015-11-11$205,000
Show marketing remark (464 chars)
Beautiful location for this early 1800's Schoolhouse w/ modern 1965 addition. Exposed beams, open 20x13 loft & cathedral ceilings in the 20x20 kit (formerly the school). Heated floors in FR, DR & bath. FR w/ exposed beams/stone FP. Large wrap around porch, deck and above ground pool. Detached, oversized 2 car garage w/ workshop. 5 year old septic system and well pump. Watch the deer and see Ski Roundtop lights while sitting on your porch. Must see!
-
1995-06-16soldstatus $116,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $4,578 · $382/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,014 · $418/mo
- Expected delta
- +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 9.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $46,800
- − Mortgage interest
- −$19,320
- − Property taxes
- −$4,578
- − Insurance
- −$1,724
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,744
- − Management
- −$3,744
- − Depreciation
- −$10,033
- Taxable income
- $3,656
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$877
- After-tax cash flow
- $8,087/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Northern York County SD
- NCES district ID
- 4217760
- Math proficiency
- 35% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 57% ▼ -12.00%
- Median HH income
- $65,255
- Composite
- 40.84/100
- National rank
- #3629
- State rank
- #223 of 539 in PA
Livability — Mount Royal
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 6,389
Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 454,205 people
- By 2030
- 457,407 · +0.7%
- By 2040
- 457,529 · +0.7%
- By 2050
- 448,261 · -1.3%
- By 2075
- 427,388 · -5.9%
- By 2100
- 384,218 · -15.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (89%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · York
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -74.95%
- Current HPI
- 247.426
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
||
| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
||
| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
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| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
|
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Price history
+197.3% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-05-02 Listed $344,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $344,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
- 2016-07-29 Sold (MLS) $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-07-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-06-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2015-11-11 Listed $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2015-11-11 Listed $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 1995-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.1%/yrLatest (2026): $4,578 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…