40417 Cross Crk · Prairieville, LA 70737

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2005 8,276 sqft lot Est $250k · at est. $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gonzales! Nestled on a spacious corner lot in desirable Flood Zone X, this home offers both comfort and peace of mind. The inviting split floor plan provides privacy and functionality, perfect for families or guests. Inside, you'll find a welcoming kitchen featuring a convenient island that flows nicely into the living space --ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the large screened-in back porch, a perfect spot for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, or gardening. With its warm, welcoming feel and thoughtful layout, this home is ready for you to make lasting memories. Schedule your Showing today !

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($20/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Primary School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade D+, #125 of 646 statewide, top 20%, 474 students, 55% FRL); Central Middle School (math 40% / reading 54%, grade D+, #37 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 747 students, 50% FRL); East Ascension High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #43 of 265 statewide, top 16%, 2,098 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,828 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,556
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40462 Cross Creek Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+0%)	3mo	$249,900	$178	93
40435 Cross Ridge Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+1%)	3mo	$253,000	$178	93
40445 Fox Run Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+1%)	2mo	$255,000	$179	91
40330 Coldwater Landing Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+0%)	2mo	$175,000	$125	90
40414 Fox Run Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+3%)	2mo	$262,000	$181	90
40428 Fox Run Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-0%)	7mo	$232,500	$167	90
40363 Creekway Cove Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+0%)	4mo	$255,000	$181	89
40312 Crestridge Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+0%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	87
40489 Cross Creek Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+0%)	7mo	$250,000	$178	87
40445 Sagefield Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-6%)	5mo	$190,000	$144	79
14452 Tanya Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+12%)	3mo	$265,000	$169	62
40167 Trace Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	7mo	$272,000	$175	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,933
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-32,694
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 571
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,892/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $72	+0% $2	+5% $-69	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-78	+0% $2	+5% $81	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $65	base $2	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40300 Creek Bend Dr Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1381	$2,000	$1.45	16d	1	0.23mi
14039 Young Rd Gonzales, LA	2.0	1.5	1385	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	1.17mi
14086 Airline Hwy Gonzales, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,779	$1.52	16d	1	1.27mi
41437 Cozy Way Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,300	$1.26	25d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gonzales! Nestled on a spacious corner lot in desirable Flood Zone X, this home offers both comfort and peace of mind. The inviting split floor plan provides privacy and functionality, perfect for families or guests. Inside, you'll find a welcoming kitchen featuring a convenient island that flows nicely into the living space --ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the large screened-in back porch, a perfect spot for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, or gardening. With its warm, welcoming feel and thoughtful layout, this home is ready for you to make lasting memories. Schedule your Showing today !

2. 2026-04-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gonzales! Nestled on a spacious corner lot in desirable Flood Zone X, this home offers both comfort and peace of mind. The inviting split floor plan provides privacy and functionality, perfect for families or guests. Inside, you'll find a welcoming kitchen featuring a convenient island that flows nicely into the living space --ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the large screened-in back porch, a perfect spot for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, or gardening. With its warm, welcoming feel and thoughtful layout, this home is ready for you to make lasting memories. Schedule your Showing today !

3. 2026-03-11
   listed $250,000 Active 780-char remark

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gonzales! Nestled on a spacious corner lot in desirable Flood Zone X, this home offers both comfort and peace of mind. The inviting split floor plan provides privacy and functionality, perfect for families or guests. Inside, you'll find a welcoming kitchen featuring a convenient island that flows nicely into the living space --ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the large screened-in back porch, a perfect spot for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, or gardening. With its warm, welcoming feel and thoughtful layout, this home is ready for you to make lasting memories. Schedule your Showing today !

4. 2026-03-11
   listed $250,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (780 chars)

   Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Gonzales! Nestled on a spacious corner lot in desirable Flood Zone X, this home offers both comfort and peace of mind. The inviting split floor plan provides privacy and functionality, perfect for families or guests. Inside, you'll find a welcoming kitchen featuring a convenient island that flows nicely into the living space --ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the large screened-in back porch, a perfect spot for morning coffee or relaxing evenings. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, or gardening. With its warm, welcoming feel and thoughtful layout, this home is ready for you to make lasting memories. Schedule your Showing today !

5. 2025-03-10
   historical $1,900
6. 2025-02-15
   listed $1,900
7. 2025-01-30
   status Active
8. 2025-01-21
   status Pending
9. 2025-01-15
   status Active
10. 2025-01-13
    status Pending
11. 2025-01-07
    listed $237,500 Active
12. 2025-01-06
    listed $237,500 Active
13. 2022-02-14
    soldstatus $210,000
14. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2021-12-17
    listed $210,000
16. 2021-12-17
    listed $210,000
17. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus
18. 2018-11-29
    listed $1,500
19. 2017-05-19
    soldstatus
20. 2017-04-07
    listed $1,475
21. 2016-04-08
    soldstatus
22. 2016-02-24
    listed $1,450
23. 2016-02-24
    soldstatus $168,500
24. 2016-02-23
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2016-02-04
    status Pending
26. 2016-01-25
    listed $174,900 Active
27. 2016-01-25
    listed $174,900
28. 2009-10-14
    soldstatus
29. 2009-10-14
    soldstatus $170,400
30. 2009-08-12
    listed $169,900
31. 2009-08-12
    listed $169,900
32. 2006-01-11
    soldstatus $132,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,892
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,037
• After-tax cash flow: $1,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+88.8% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $250,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $250,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-03-10 Rental Removed $1,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-02-15 Listed for Rent $1,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-01-30 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2025-01-21 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-01-15 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2025-01-13 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listed $237,500 GBRMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $237,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-11 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2021-12-17 Listed $210,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-12-17 Listed $210,000 GBRMLS
• 2018-12-21 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2018-11-29 Listed $1,500 GBRMLS
• 2017-05-19 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2017-04-07 Listed $1,475 GBRMLS
• 2016-04-08 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2016-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $168,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-24 Listed $1,450 GBRMLS
• 2016-02-23 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2016-02-04 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2016-01-25 Listed $174,900 GBRMLS
• 2016-01-25 Listed $174,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $170,400 Public Records
• 2009-10-14 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2009-08-12 Listed $169,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-08-12 Listed $169,900 GBRMLS
• 2006-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $132,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,892 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.