142 Kelso Dr · Erie, PA 16505

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 716 sqft · Other public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1940 4,452 sqft lot $38/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TWO for the price of ONE! Located down in the tourist corridor a quarter mile west of the peninsula, this property has potential busting at all seams. Front home (grey single story) is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home with ample space. The second home is a one bedroom, one bath two story home. Both units have exponential potential for rental spaces or owner occupancy. Also included with this is private beach access!! Bring your hammer & imagination and become part of the rapidly growing Peninsula Gateway District!

Key facts

• Private beach access
• 4,452 sq ft lot
• Built 1940

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-549 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (48.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (47.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (48.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $102,921 (48.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.77%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-67,340
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-103,591
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16505

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,566/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $-549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,751

Max offer price $102,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-436	-5% $-492	+0% $-549	+5% $-606	+10% $-662
Rent	-10% $-632	-5% $-591	+0% $-549	+5% $-507	+10% $-466
Rate	-1.0pp $-448	-0.5pp $-498	base $-549	+0.5pp $-601	+1.0pp $-653

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 Beachgrove Dr Apt 4 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	44d	1	0.59mi
3063 W 11th St Apt 30 Erie, PA	1.0	1.0	650	$925	$1.42	44d	1	0.68mi
2540 W 8th St Erie, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	550	$1,711	$3.11	44d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   status Active
3. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
4. 2025-08-29
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2023-06-29
   soldstatus $754,000
6. 1984-02-14
   soldstatus $15,000
7. 1980-08-14
   soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,566 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,862 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 11.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,566
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,014
• − Management: −$1,014
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$10,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,631

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.22%
• Current HPI: 240.6976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1075.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-01-06 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-08-29 Listed $199,900 GEBOR
• 2023-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $754,000 Public Records
• 1984-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1980-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,566 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.