205 8th Ave NW · Winchester, TN 37398

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,333 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1957 0.39 ac lot Est $284k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this delightful brick home nestled on a generous corner lot surrounded by mature shade trees. Full of character and timeless appeal, this home features gleaming original hardwood floors that add warmth and authenticity throughout. Perfectly situated close to town and just minutes from Tims Ford Lake. This combines peaceful living with everyday convenience. Replacement windows throughout the home. Home selling "AS IS"

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking listed; No carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Crawl space foundation; Existing year built
• Exterior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Lot about 0.39 acre (approx. 132.4 x 140 irregular)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level) — approx. 11x11, 10x11 and 9x11
• Flooring: Wood; Tile; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#149 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Franklin County (town): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #111 of 139 in TN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clark Memorial School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #637 of 952 statewide, top 68%, 489 students, 0% FRL); Franklin Co High School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #255 of 332 statewide, top 77%, 1,180 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $225k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,929
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 N Vine St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-3%)	3mo	$242,500	$188	81
115 7th Ave NE	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,308 (-2%)	3mo	$172,000	$131	78
510 N Vine St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,360 (+2%)	4mo	$232,000	$171	78
115 Heath Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-2%)	5mo	$287,400	$219	72
203 3rd Ave NE	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+1%)	1mo	$270,000	$201	71
301 N Shephard St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (-2%)	3mo	$250,000	$190	67
102 Lisa Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+4%)	0mo	$294,200	$213	65
109 Shephard St N	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,358 (+2%)	4mo	$319,900	$236	64
97 Troy Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-9%)	1mo	$287,850	$237	55
139 Sherry St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+3%)	8mo	$265,000	$193	51
165 13th Ave NW	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+14%)	9mo	$375,000	$246	50
196 Brookfield Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-10%)	6mo	$313,000	$262	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,475
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $21,881
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37398

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $224,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $224,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $224,900 Active
19. 2026-04-28
    historical
20. 2026-03-16
    price $229,000
21. 2026-02-03
    price $237,000
22. 2025-12-16
    price $244,900
23. 2025-11-20
    price $254,900
24. 2025-10-23
    listed $259,000 Active
25. 2013-07-31
    soldstatus $73,300
26. 2005-08-08
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,597 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 108.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $1,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$252
• After-tax cash flow: $4,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 4701290
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,108
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9094
• State rank: #111 of 139 in TN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13341

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, TN
• Population (ZIP): 15,712

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,858 people
• By 2030: 43,540 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 44,623 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 45,523 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 48,954 · +14.2%
• By 2100: 50,170 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.03%
• Current HPI: 333.839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+257.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $224,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $229,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $237,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $244,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $254,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $259,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $73,300 Public Records
• 2005-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.