1671 NE Mission Creek Rd · Belfair, WA 98528

$180,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1967 10,454 sqft lot $220/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at this peaceful Belfair property nestled in a private, wooded setting with plenty of potential to make it your own. Sold as-is, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a project in a quiet rural location. Enjoy the tranquility of the Pacific Northwest while still being conveniently located near local shopping, dining, schools, and outdoor recreation including hiking, fishing, and boating around Hood Canal. With easy access to nearby highways and surrounding amenities, this property offers both privacy and convenience in the growing Belfair community.

Key facts

• Quiet rural location
• Conveniently located
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED SETTING
• QUIET RURAL LOCATION
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS
• GROWING BELFAIR COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 covered space); Driveway; RV parking
• Utilities: Individual well for water; Septic tank for sewer; Electric and wood energy sources; Electric water heater; Power provided by PUD3; Internet service: Astound
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry on main level; Facing/position: built on lot
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Effective year built: 1967
• Exterior features: Deck; RV parking; Wood exterior / wood products; Dead-end street; Paved access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with eating space; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Wood burning fireplace; Bonus room; Entry hall; Living room; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.7% in Belfair — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#272 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Mason School District (rural): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #233 of 291 in WA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sand Hill Elementary (534 students, 57% FRL); North Mason Senior High School (663 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $180k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.29%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,103
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -50.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
60 NE Santa Maria Ln	0.55mi	2/1.0	864 (+5%)	14mo	$364,000	$421	54
40 NE Pegleg Ct	0.73mi	2/1.0	936 (+14%)	8mo	$330,000	$353	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,051
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $22,153
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98528

• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,380

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $399	+0% $348	+5% $297	+10% $246
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $276	+0% $348	+5% $420	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $394	base $348	+0.5pp $302	+1.0pp $254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $180,000 Active
17. 2016-10-20
    soldstatus $79,995 Sold
18. 2016-10-19
    soldstatus $93,067
19. 2016-10-19
    soldstatus $93,067
20. 2016-08-05
    status Pending
21. 2016-07-22
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2016-07-19
    status Active
23. 2016-07-18
    historical Expired
24. 2016-06-13
    status Active
25. 2016-03-07
    status Pending
26. 2016-02-24
    status Pending Inspection
27. 2016-02-16
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,764 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$912/yr (+$76/mo · 107.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $1,280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$307
• After-tax cash flow: $3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Mason School District
• NCES district ID: 5305790
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,458
• Composite: 34.67/100
• National rank: #10069
• State rank: #233 of 291 in WA

Livability — Belfair

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #272
• US rank: #9436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belfair, WA
• Population (ZIP): 12,398

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.97%
• Current HPI: 205.0499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+125.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $180,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-20 Sold (MLS) $79,995 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $93,067 Public Records
• 2016-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $93,067 Public Records
• 2016-08-05 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-19 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-18 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-13 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-16 Listed $79,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+35.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $852 · -12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.