46 Beach Rd · Jamesport, NY 11948

$799,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1940 6,970 sqft lot $515/sqft · 41% below area Est $1049k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled between the shimmering Peconic Bay & Bucolic Farmland is the Beach house you've been searching for! 100 feet from your deeded sugar-sand beach. Charming, Renovated 3 BR/ 2 Bath cottage. Wide plank wood floors. Chef's kitchen with stainless appliances, granite counters, double oven. Room to entertain both inside & out. Big 2 car detached garage. Low maintenance piece of property. Close to world class golf. Located on a quiet, private road but convenient to the best of the North Fork!, Additional information: Appearance:Amazing,Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,200 (building area total 1,550) — source: public records

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage; Total parking for 6 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Natural gas connected; Septic tank; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence; Frame construction; Not waterfront
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Mailbox; Back-yard fencing; Deck; Porch; Crawl space foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Granite countertops; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Double-pane windows; Deck and porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside; Dehumidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $496k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $497k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $496k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,185 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $80k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$128k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($775k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $485k; list at $799k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $496,287 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.90%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,049,276
• List price: $799,000
• Delta: -23.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1521 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,565 (+1%)	12mo	$2,550,000	$1,629	78
1653 Peconic Bay Blvd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,550 (0%)	14mo	$1,750,000	$1,129	72
17 Beach Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-13%)	12mo	$1,895,000	$1,406	62
58 Timothy Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-2%)	16mo	$790,000	$519	59
160 High Meadow Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-3%)	7mo	$995,000	$663	58
133 High Meadow Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-7%)	4mo	$699,500	$483	53
675 N Oakwood Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,425 (-8%)	8mo	$715,000	$502	45
1420 Laurelwood Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+10%)	2mo	$950,000	$559	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $289,666
• Equity at exit: $680,974

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $930,831
• Equity at exit: $1,429,101

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11948

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$690 /mo · $8,281/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,044
• Net cashflow: $-1,714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,139

Max offer price $496,287

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Beach Rd Laurel, NY	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,500	$2.80	43d	1	0.02mi
1727 Main Rd Unit 1538864P Laurel, NY	3.0	2.5	1937	$7,548	$3.90	13d	1	0.98mi
144 Manor Ln Jamesport, NY	4.0	2.5	2100	$9,500	$4.52	4d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $799,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $799,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $799,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $799,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $799,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $799,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $799,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-06
   listed $815,000 Active 957-char remark
9. 2020-08-01
   soldstatus $485,000
10. 2020-04-28
    soldstatus $485,000 Closed 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Nestled between the shimmering Peconic Bay & Bucolic Farmland is the Beach house you've been searching for! 100 feet from your deeded sugar-sand beach. Charming, Renovated 3 BR/ 2 Bath cottage. Wide plank wood floors. Chef's kitchen with stainless appliances, granite counters, double oven. Room to entertain both inside & out. Big 2 car detached garage. Low maintenance piece of property. Close to world class golf. Located on a quiet, private road but convenient to the best of the North Fork!, Additional information: Appearance:Amazing,Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

11. 2020-03-26
    status Pending 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Nestled between the shimmering Peconic Bay & Bucolic Farmland is the Beach house you've been searching for! 100 feet from your deeded sugar-sand beach. Charming, Renovated 3 BR/ 2 Bath cottage. Wide plank wood floors. Chef's kitchen with stainless appliances, granite counters, double oven. Room to entertain both inside & out. Big 2 car detached garage. Low maintenance piece of property. Close to world class golf. Located on a quiet, private road but convenient to the best of the North Fork!, Additional information: Appearance:Amazing,Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

12. 2020-03-18
    status Under Contract 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Nestled between the shimmering Peconic Bay & Bucolic Farmland is the Beach house you've been searching for! 100 feet from your deeded sugar-sand beach. Charming, Renovated 3 BR/ 2 Bath cottage. Wide plank wood floors. Chef's kitchen with stainless appliances, granite counters, double oven. Room to entertain both inside & out. Big 2 car detached garage. Low maintenance piece of property. Close to world class golf. Located on a quiet, private road but convenient to the best of the North Fork!, Additional information: Appearance:Amazing,Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

13. 2020-01-29
    price $499,999 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Nestled between the shimmering Peconic Bay & Bucolic Farmland is the Beach house you've been searching for! 100 feet from your deeded sugar-sand beach. Charming, Renovated 3 BR/ 2 Bath cottage. Wide plank wood floors. Chef's kitchen with stainless appliances, granite counters, double oven. Room to entertain both inside & out. Big 2 car detached garage. Low maintenance piece of property. Close to world class golf. Located on a quiet, private road but convenient to the best of the North Fork!, Additional information: Appearance:Amazing,Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

14. 2019-09-11
    listed $549,000 New 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Nestled between the shimmering Peconic Bay & Bucolic Farmland is the Beach house you've been searching for! 100 feet from your deeded sugar-sand beach. Charming, Renovated 3 BR/ 2 Bath cottage. Wide plank wood floors. Chef's kitchen with stainless appliances, granite counters, double oven. Room to entertain both inside & out. Big 2 car detached garage. Low maintenance piece of property. Close to world class golf. Located on a quiet, private road but convenient to the best of the North Fork!, Additional information: Appearance:Amazing,Business Located At:,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Rental Income:,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

15. 2013-10-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Charming Beach Cottage! Totally Updated. 3 Brs, 2 Baths, Large Open Great Room With Fireplace, Granite Kitchen, Dining Area, Large Deck And Detached 2 Car Garage. Outside Shower. Close To Sandy Bay Beach. Must See!

16. 2013-10-02
    soldstatus $350,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Charming Beach Cottage! Totally Updated. 3 Brs, 2 Baths, Large Open Great Room With Fireplace, Granite Kitchen, Dining Area, Large Deck And Detached 2 Car Garage. Outside Shower. Close To Sandy Bay Beach. Must See!

17. 2013-10-02
    soldstatus $350,000

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Charming Beach Cottage! Totally Updated. 3 Brs, 2 Baths, Large Open Great Room With Fireplace, Granite Kitchen, Dining Area, Large Deck And Detached 2 Car Garage. Outside Shower. Close To Sandy Bay Beach. Must See!

18. 2013-07-08
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Charming Beach Cottage! Totally Updated. 3 Brs, 2 Baths, Large Open Great Room With Fireplace, Granite Kitchen, Dining Area, Large Deck And Detached 2 Car Garage. Outside Shower. Close To Sandy Bay Beach. Must See!

19. 2013-02-22
    listed $399,000 New

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Charming Beach Cottage! Totally Updated. 3 Brs, 2 Baths, Large Open Great Room With Fireplace, Granite Kitchen, Dining Area, Large Deck And Detached 2 Car Garage. Outside Shower. Close To Sandy Bay Beach. Must See!

20. 2013-02-21
    listed $399,000
21. 2012-12-06
    soldstatus $231,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,281 · $690/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,892 · $908/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,611/yr (+$218/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$8,281
• − Insurance: −$9,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,771
• − Management: −$4,771
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable loss: −$35,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jamesport

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1185
• US rank: #26497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamesport, NY
• City population: 716
• Population (ZIP): 775

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.33%
• Current HPI: 383.8402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+245.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $815,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $485,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-28 Sold (MLS) $485,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-29 Price Changed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-11 Listed $549,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-10 Delisted — MLSLI
• 2013-10-02 Sold (MLS) $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-02 Sold (MLS) $350,000 MLSLI
• 2013-07-08 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-02-22 Listed $399,000 MLSLI
• 2013-02-21 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $231,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,281 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.