8021 Old Pacific Hwy · Castle Rock, WA 98611

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 1971 $110/sqft · 29% below area Est $154k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice small 55+ community. Nestled amongst nature.This is you opportunity to own your own 2 bedroom with an open concept floor plan, with a nice covered deck with carport and shed. This home has been remodeled and yet you can add your own personal touch. Conveniently located close to town but yet still private and quiet location. Home is being "SOLD IS,AS IS" Ready to move-in and make your own. Seller is motivated.

Key facts

• Rock accents
• Stunning kitchen
• Oversized fenced lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED FENCED LOT
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• PORCELAIN FARMHOUSE SINK
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• TWO COVERED PORCHES
• ROCK ACCENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Viking Village (unit toward back); Address: 8021 Old Pacific Hwy, Castle Rock, WA 98611
• Financial info: Lot rent $850 per month; Land lease not indicated
• HOA & community: Association offers front yard landscaping, sewer, and water; Association name: Carl

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway; Association-owned parking space
• Utilities: Electricity fuel; Water from community and well; Sewer via community and septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Residential property; Updated/remodeled condition; Single-story (main living area listed as main level); Built in 1971; No view listed
• Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation; Other-style roof; Year built 1971
• Exterior features: Metal siding; Wood composite exterior; Level lot with trees; Private road; Concrete and paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Second bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling listed
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.2% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#209 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Rock Elementary (702 students, 58% FRL); Castle Rock Middle School (348 students, 56% FRL); Castle Rock High School (449 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $93,476 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.95%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,749
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -68.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $40,996
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $108,372
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98611

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $950	-5% $917	+0% $885	+5% $852	+10% $819
Rent	-10% $731	-5% $808	+0% $885	+5% $962	+10% $1,039
Rate	-1.0pp $932	-0.5pp $909	base $885	+0.5pp $860	+1.0pp $835

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
498 Kroll Rd Castle Rock, WA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,950	$1.97	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-03-01
    listed $49,000 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Nice small 55+ community. Nestled amongst nature.This is you opportunity to own your own 2 bedroom with an open concept floor plan, with a nice covered deck with carport and shed. This home has been remodeled and yet you can add your own personal touch. Conveniently located close to town but yet still private and quiet location. Home is being "SOLD IS,AS IS" Ready to move-in and make your own. Seller is motivated.

19. 2025-09-30
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    1996 Fleetwood 3 Bed 2 Bath Double Wide in Relaxing Rural Castle Rock Manufactured Home Viking Village 55 Plus Community. Forested Park-Like Setting. NEW Roof. Spacious Primary Bedroom w/ WI Closet & 3/4 Bath. Kitchen w/ Eating Space, Appliances Included. Dining Room. Spacious Living Room. Newer Carpet. Laminate Flooring. Forced Air Furnace Heating. Skylights. Double Pane Vinyl Windows. Vaulted Ceiling. Carport. Space Rent is $750 including Well Water & On Site Septic. Park Approval of Sale & Lot Rent is Required.

20. 2025-09-11
    status Pending 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    1996 Fleetwood 3 Bed 2 Bath Double Wide in Relaxing Rural Castle Rock Manufactured Home Viking Village 55 Plus Community. Forested Park-Like Setting. NEW Roof. Spacious Primary Bedroom w/ WI Closet & 3/4 Bath. Kitchen w/ Eating Space, Appliances Included. Dining Room. Spacious Living Room. Newer Carpet. Laminate Flooring. Forced Air Furnace Heating. Skylights. Double Pane Vinyl Windows. Vaulted Ceiling. Carport. Space Rent is $750 including Well Water & On Site Septic. Park Approval of Sale & Lot Rent is Required.

21. 2025-08-11
    price $75,000 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    1996 Fleetwood 3 Bed 2 Bath Double Wide in Relaxing Rural Castle Rock Manufactured Home Viking Village 55 Plus Community. Forested Park-Like Setting. NEW Roof. Spacious Primary Bedroom w/ WI Closet & 3/4 Bath. Kitchen w/ Eating Space, Appliances Included. Dining Room. Spacious Living Room. Newer Carpet. Laminate Flooring. Forced Air Furnace Heating. Skylights. Double Pane Vinyl Windows. Vaulted Ceiling. Carport. Space Rent is $750 including Well Water & On Site Septic. Park Approval of Sale & Lot Rent is Required.

22. 2025-07-25
    price $90,000 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    1996 Fleetwood 3 Bed 2 Bath Double Wide in Relaxing Rural Castle Rock Manufactured Home Viking Village 55 Plus Community. Forested Park-Like Setting. NEW Roof. Spacious Primary Bedroom w/ WI Closet & 3/4 Bath. Kitchen w/ Eating Space, Appliances Included. Dining Room. Spacious Living Room. Newer Carpet. Laminate Flooring. Forced Air Furnace Heating. Skylights. Double Pane Vinyl Windows. Vaulted Ceiling. Carport. Space Rent is $750 including Well Water & On Site Septic. Park Approval of Sale & Lot Rent is Required.

23. 2025-05-12
    price $99,900 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    1996 Fleetwood 3 Bed 2 Bath Double Wide in Relaxing Rural Castle Rock Manufactured Home Viking Village 55 Plus Community. Forested Park-Like Setting. NEW Roof. Spacious Primary Bedroom w/ WI Closet & 3/4 Bath. Kitchen w/ Eating Space, Appliances Included. Dining Room. Spacious Living Room. Newer Carpet. Laminate Flooring. Forced Air Furnace Heating. Skylights. Double Pane Vinyl Windows. Vaulted Ceiling. Carport. Space Rent is $750 including Well Water & On Site Septic. Park Approval of Sale & Lot Rent is Required.

24. 2025-04-22
    listed $115,000 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    1996 Fleetwood 3 Bed 2 Bath Double Wide in Relaxing Rural Castle Rock Manufactured Home Viking Village 55 Plus Community. Forested Park-Like Setting. NEW Roof. Spacious Primary Bedroom w/ WI Closet & 3/4 Bath. Kitchen w/ Eating Space, Appliances Included. Dining Room. Spacious Living Room. Newer Carpet. Laminate Flooring. Forced Air Furnace Heating. Skylights. Double Pane Vinyl Windows. Vaulted Ceiling. Carport. Space Rent is $750 including Well Water & On Site Septic. Park Approval of Sale & Lot Rent is Required.

25. 2019-07-10
    soldstatus $725,000
26. 1994-10-10
    soldstatus $322,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $9,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,324
• After-tax cash flow: $8,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Castle Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 5300990
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,823
• Composite: 41.78/100
• National rank: #7162
• State rank: #174 of 291 in WA

Livability — Castle Rock

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #5888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,367

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.17%
• Current HPI: 261.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-70.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $94,900 RMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $49,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-30 Sold (MLS) $65,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-11 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $75,000 RMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $90,000 RMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $99,900 RMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $115,000 RMLS
• 2019-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $725,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $322,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,317 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.