1150 W Winton Ave #541 · Hayward, CA 94545

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,327 sqft · Manufactured public records · 508 Days on market

Built 2011 $203/sqft · 7% above area Est $265k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

7X24 SCREENPORCH ADDED IN 1981. 3RD BR HAS SLIDING SHOJI SCREEN DOORS- MAKES AN EXCELLENT DEN OR OFFICE. NEW SINKS AND

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2011
• Listed 508 days

Tags

• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $269k).
• Recommended offer: $237k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 508 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 259% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $269k implies a 284% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $236,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 508 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.94%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,950
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: 1.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1150 W Winton Ave #221	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	9mo	$242,000	$180	83
1200 W Winton Ave #215	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-1%)	14mo	$297,500	$227	76
1200 W Winton Ave #32	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	16mo	$385,000	$286	74
1200 W Winton Ave #203	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+13%)	1mo	$379,000	$253	73
1150 W Winton #556	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+3%)	14mo	$170,000	$124	73
1150 W Winton Ave #510	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+3%)	22mo	$250,000	$183	69
1150 W Winton Ave #120	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	23mo	$283,000	$211	69
1150 W Winton Ave #554	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+3%)	24mo	$260,000	$190	68
1150 W Winton Ave #229	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-14%)	2mo	$177,000	$155	67
1200 W Winton #49	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-13%)	21mo	$280,000	$243	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $34,611
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $126,611
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94545

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $757/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $1,252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,404	-5% $1,328	+0% $1,252	+5% $1,176	+10% $1,099
Rent	-10% $968	-5% $1,110	+0% $1,252	+5% $1,394	+10% $1,535
Rate	-1.0pp $1,387	-0.5pp $1,320	base $1,252	+0.5pp $1,182	+1.0pp $1,111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
946 Hohener Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$3,600	$2.51	16d	1	0.72mi
936 Lucia Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,875	$2.13	6d	1	0.86mi
25800 Industrial Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,893	$3.53	0d	11	0.86mi
566 Beechmont Ln Hayward, CA	4.0	3.0	1620	$4,200	$2.59	3d	1	0.91mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22850 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1247	$4,095	$3.28	0d	1	0.92mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22846 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1053	$3,795	$3.60	0d	1	0.92mi
694 Tehama Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	1.5	1136	$3,300	$2.90	0d	1	0.97mi
1172 Huron Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$5,000	$3.88	23d	1	1.03mi
22211 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,145	$2.38	6d	2	1.11mi
466 Mackenzie Pl Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1173	$3,900	$3.32	25d	1	1.21mi
26754 Contessa St Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1527	$4,000	$2.62	23d	1	1.28mi
24650 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$3,525	$4.29	0d	15	1.34mi
43 Crystal Gate Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1670	$3,600	$2.16	25d	1	1.39mi
629 Moss Way Hayward, CA	3.0	3.0	1704	$3,600	$2.11	23d	1	1.43mi
245 Spring Harvest Rd Hayward, CA	3.0	3.0	1554	$3,750	$2.41	45d	1	1.46mi
1098 Azalea Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1332	$3,500	$2.63	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2015-02-17
   historical
2. 2001-06-28
   soldstatus $70,000 118-char remark

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   7X24 SCREENPORCH ADDED IN 1981. 3RD BR HAS SLIDING SHOJI SCREEN DOORS- MAKES AN EXCELLENT DEN OR OFFICE. NEW SINKS AND

3. 2001-05-29
   historical 118-char remark

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   7X24 SCREENPORCH ADDED IN 1981. 3RD BR HAS SLIDING SHOJI SCREEN DOORS- MAKES AN EXCELLENT DEN OR OFFICE. NEW SINKS AND

4. 2001-03-15
   listed $75,000 118-char remark

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   7X24 SCREENPORCH ADDED IN 1981. 3RD BR HAS SLIDING SHOJI SCREEN DOORS- MAKES AN EXCELLENT DEN OR OFFICE. NEW SINKS AND

5. 2000-05-22
   soldstatus $49,500
6. 2000-05-01
   historical
7. 2000-04-27
   listed $52,500
8. 1999-04-19
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $757 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,044 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,287/yr (+$107/mo · 169.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$757
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,448
• − Management: −$3,448
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable income: $11,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,690
• After-tax cash flow: $12,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,843
• Household income: $114,356
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 8% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 14% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -974.17%
• Current HPI: 304.698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2015-02-17 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-06-28 Sold (MLS) $70,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-05-29 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-03-15 Listed $75,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-05-22 Sold (MLS) $49,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-05-01 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-04-27 Listed $52,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-04-19 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $757 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.