11726 Jasper Ave · Lucerne Valley, CA 92356

$89,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1960 7.47 ac lot Est $65k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

INCREDIBLE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY! This frame house sits on 2.49 acres and comes with the neighboring parcel, totaling a generous 7.47 acres! (APNs: 0453-262-03 and 04.) Nestled against scenic buttes and surrounded by breathtaking mountain views, this property offers unparalleled privacy and proximity to vast acres of government land—perfect for outdoor enthusiasts and those seeking seclusion. The property includes chain-link fencing with privacy panels, although some areas may need repairs. With some creativity and effort, this site has huge potential to become a one-of-a-kind retreat or a profitable flip. It’s an ideal spot for solar power and appears to be set up for hauled water (buyer to verify). The house itself needs renovation and the property is being sold strictly AS-IS, with no repairs or improvements provided by the seller. What you see is what you get—making it a blank canvas for investors ready to roll up their sleeves and unlock its true value. Explore your options, and don’t miss this chance to transform a hidden gem into a standout investment! CAUTION WHEN WALKING INSIDE THE HOUSE, IT MAY BE UNSAFE.

Key facts

• Fenced property
• 7.49 acres
• 7.47 acre lot

Tags

• 7.49 ACRES
• TWO ADJOINING PARCELS
• FENCED PROPERTY
• OPEN DESERT LANDSCAPES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: public records; Lot size source: assessor's data; No ADU on property
• Financial info: No financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided; Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Security: No security information provided
• Utilities: Septic (type unknown); No public water
• Home design: Cabin-style structure; Attached property; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction; No year built provided; No roof or foundation details provided
• Exterior features: Porch; Patio; Fenced lot; Rural setting; Has a view; Sprinklers: none

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: No bedroom details provided
• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling information provided
• Interior features: One-level living; Entry from Jasper Ave; Living room
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.7% in Lucerne Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,358 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.89%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11726 Jasper Ave	0.00mi	1/1.0	520 (0%)	16mo	$65,000	$125	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $85,359
• Equity at exit: $80,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.92×
• Total profit: $222,350
• Equity at exit: $172,907

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92356

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $834/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $630	-5% $604	+0% $579	+5% $554	+10% $529
Rent	-10% $464	-5% $522	+0% $579	+5% $637	+10% $694
Rate	-1.0pp $624	-0.5pp $602	base $579	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 620-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $834 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $834 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$834
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,401
• − Management: −$1,401
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,405
• After-tax cash flow: $5,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne Valley

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1358
• US rank: #26994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,665

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.34%
• Current HPI: 440.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+61.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $89,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-27 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2022-05-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-02-11 Listed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2021-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-20 Sold (MLS) $58,000 CRMLS
• 2021-04-09 Listed $55,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $834 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.