5506 Thornhill Ct · Stockton, CA 95219

$570,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,311 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1999 6,103 sqft lot $247/sqft · at area comps Est $594k · at est. $215/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom home with a versatile loft offers flexible living, including a downstairs bedroom and full bath. Features include hardwood flooring, tile roof, kitchen island, newer stove and dishwasher, and abundant natural light. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sinks, and a separate tub and shower. Enjoy community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, park, and tennis and basketball courts. Conveniently located near I-5 and Lincoln Unified Schools in a well-established, gated neighborhood.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Newer stove
• Tile roof

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• TILE ROOF
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• NEWER STOVE
• NEWER DISHWASHER
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($519k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $381,488 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.53%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $593,523
• List price: $570,000
• Delta: -3.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5535 Thornhill Ct	0.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,311 (0%)	4mo	$570,000	$247	90
6740 Brook Falls Cir	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,311 (0%)	9mo	$555,000	$240	84
6777 Brook Falls Cir	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,311 (0%)	10mo	$545,000	$236	81
6213 Embarcadero Dr	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,320 (+0%)	7mo	$765,000	$330	67
3105 Autumn Chase Cir	0.26mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,095 (-9%)	3mo	$555,000	$265	65
3863 Brook Valley Cir	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (-11%)	5mo	$560,000	$272	65
3593 Shadowbrook Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,104 (-9%)	2mo	$556,000	$264	62
5533 Brook Falls Ct	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,972 (-15%)	2mo	$510,000	$259	61
3827 Fourteen Mile Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,493 (+8%)	2mo	$799,888	$321	60
5896 Riverbank Cir	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,241 (-3%)	9mo	$575,000	$257	56
3137 Autumn Chase Cir	0.28mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,095 (-9%)	14mo	$577,000	$275	55
3395 Willowbrook Cir	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,120 (-8%)	13mo	$605,000	$285	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $251,242
• Equity at exit: $513,501

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $799,832
• Equity at exit: $1,107,385

Cash invested: $159,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax from tax record: −$574 /mo · $6,887/yr
• Insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$215
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $-1,002

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,083

Max offer price $393,034

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-679	-5% $-840	+0% $-1,002	+5% $-1,163	+10% $-1,324
Rent	-10% $-1,303	-5% $-1,152	+0% $-1,002	+5% $-851	+10% $-700
Rate	-1.0pp $-715	-0.5pp $-857	base $-1,002	+0.5pp $-1,149	+1.0pp $-1,300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,500
• Closing costs: $17,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3906 Brook Valley Cir Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,100	$1.28	44d	1	0.21mi
3616 Wood Duck Cir Stockton, CA	5.0	3.0	2302	$7,500	$3.26	24d	1	0.74mi
3936 Dennis Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,625	$1.66	3d	1	1.41mi
5956 Saint Andrews Dr Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	3345	$3,300	$0.99	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $215 · $2,580/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $570,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $570,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $570,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $570,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $570,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $570,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $570,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $570,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $570,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $570,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $570,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $570,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2024-05-11
    historical
14. 2024-04-29
    listed $650,000 Active
15. 2022-01-20
    soldstatus $560,000
16. 1999-11-24
    soldstatus $188,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,887 · $574/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,887 · $574/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,929
• − Property taxes: −$6,887
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,662
• − Management: −$3,662
• − HOA: −$2,580
• − Depreciation: −$16,582
• Taxable loss: −$22,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,370
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+244.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-04-29 Listed $650,000 CRMLS
• 2022-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $560,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $188,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,887 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.