18651 Warwick St · Detroit, MI 48219

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 701 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 414 Days on market

Built 1942 5,227 sqft lot $136/sqft · 59% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special , very well maintained houses with tenants occupied. Buy it by itself or as a bundle with these listings :7661 Penrod, 16559 Mansfield, 9553 Auburn, 18699 Forrer . .. BATVAI

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $95k implies a 604% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.21%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,652
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 59.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18723 Warwick St	0.07mi	2/1.0	700 (-0%)	8mo	$54,500	$78	90
18691 Shaftsbury Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0	692 (-1%)	13mo	$46,000	$66	84
18659 Shaftsbury Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	763 (+9%)	10mo	$70,000	$92	69
18411 Grandville Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	748 (+7%)	14mo	$60,000	$80	67
18682 Avon Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0	790 (+13%)	8mo	$67,500	$85	63
19307 Fenmore St	0.66mi	2/1.0	725 (+3%)	3mo	$72,500	$100	61
19352 Evergreen Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0	752 (+7%)	2mo	$75,000	$100	60
19213 Ashton Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0	710 (+1%)	15mo	$32,000	$45	60
19195 Fenmore St	0.64mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	8mo	$79,500	$110	59
19352 Avon St	0.41mi	2/1.5	752 (+7%)	10mo	$70,000	$93	58
19425 Fenmore St	0.73mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	8mo	$79,000	$110	55
19749 Rosemont Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	753 (+7%)	7mo	$90,000	$120	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,199
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $44,961
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48219

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,057 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $799

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19372 Grandville Ave Detroit, MI	2.0	1.5	733	$1,050	$1.43	15d	1	0.37mi
18274 Fielding St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	17d	1	0.76mi
18276 Oakfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	726	$1,175	$1.62	44d	1	0.84mi
20068 Faust Ave Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	24d	1	0.87mi
19736 Gilchrist St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	696	$995	$1.43	13d	1	1.04mi
20539 Southfield Rd Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	10d	4	1.17mi
18025 Bentler St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	728	$1,250	$1.72	24d	1	1.29mi
17274 Bentler St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$838	$1.20	24d	2	1.37mi
17274 Bentler St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	44d	2	1.37mi
17270 Bentler St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	650	$850	$1.31	44d	1	1.37mi
17274 Bentler St #46 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	17d	1	1.37mi
18400 Lahser Rd Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	620	$950	$1.53	24d	1	1.45mi
18450 Lahser Rd Apt 1 Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	650	$820	$1.26	5d	1	1.45mi
18350 Lahser Rd Detroit, MI	1.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	44d	1	1.45mi
16194 Fielding St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	15d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 413 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 409 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 408 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 405 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 404 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 403 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 400 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 399 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 397 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 396 DOM
13. 2025-04-30
    listed $95,000 Active 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Investor special , very well maintained houses with tenants occupied. Buy it by itself or as a bundle with these listings :7661 Penrod, 16559 Mansfield, 9553 Auburn, 18699 Forrer . .. BATVAI

14. 2025-04-30
    listed $95,000 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Investor special , very well maintained houses with tenants occupied. Buy it by itself or as a bundle with these listings :7661 Penrod, 16559 Mansfield, 9553 Auburn, 18699 Forrer . .. BATVAI

15. 2025-04-29
    historical $95,000 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Investor special , very well maintained houses with tenants occupied. Buy it by itself or as a bundle with these listings :7661 Penrod, 16559 Mansfield, 9553 Auburn, 18699 Forrer . .. BATVAI

16. 2017-12-18
    soldstatus $13,500 Sold
17. 2017-12-18
    soldstatus $13,500 Closed
18. 2017-11-30
    status Pending
19. 2017-11-30
    status Pending
20. 2017-11-15
    listed $14,400 Active
21. 2017-11-15
    listed $14,400 Active
22. 2017-06-15
    historical
23. 2017-06-14
    historical
24. 2017-04-21
    status Active
25. 2017-04-11
    historical
26. 2017-03-10
    status Active
27. 2017-03-07
    historical
28. 2017-02-10
    status Active
29. 2017-02-06
    historical
30. 2017-01-20
    status Active
31. 2017-01-04
    historical
32. 2016-12-19
    listed $55,000 Active
33. 2016-12-19
    listed $55,000 Active
34. 1999-01-20
    soldstatus $42,000
35. 1998-10-27
    soldstatus $42,000
36. 1998-08-05
    soldstatus $8,000
37. 1998-05-29
    listed $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,015
• − Management: −$1,015
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$235
• After-tax cash flow: $2,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 47,208
• Household income: $43,655
• Rent vs Own: 45.1% rent · 54.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3584.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.06%
• Current HPI: 563.3263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+126.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-30 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-30 Listed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-29 Coming Soon $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-18 Sold (MLS) $13,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-18 Sold (MLS) $13,500 REALCOMP
• 2017-11-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2017-11-15 Listed $14,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-15 Listed $14,400 REALCOMP
• 2017-06-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-06-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-04-21 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-04-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-03-10 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-03-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-10 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-01-20 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-01-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-12-19 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-12-19 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 1999-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1998-10-27 Sold (MLS) $42,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1998-05-29 Listed $42,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,118 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.