3609 27th St · Lubbock, TX 79410

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 9,938 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-upper with potential! 2 bed, 1 bath home with 972 sq ft featuring a living room, dining room, and kitchen, and spacious bedrooms. Needs some love but it has newer windows in most of the home. Great investment or renovation opportunity.

Key facts

• Newer windows
• 9,938 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Paved road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Metal siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 972
• Exterior features: Chain link fenced yard; Fenced

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,199
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $24,377
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79410

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,506/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,017

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3505 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,300	$1.26	13d	1	0.17mi
3714 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$1,175	$1.31	44d	1	0.19mi
2501 Louisville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1033	$1,099	$1.06	43d	1	0.20mi
3409 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,250	$1.21	21d	1	0.25mi
3614 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$900	$1.19	13d	1	0.25mi
3414 26th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	835	$950	$1.14	43d	1	0.26mi
3618 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	43d	1	0.26mi
3601 23rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$949	$1.11	43d	1	0.28mi
3709 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1107	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.31mi
3813 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,295	$1.27	21d	1	0.44mi
3221 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	982	$925	$0.94	13d	1	0.56mi
3408 Nashville Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$700	$1.06	13d	1	0.56mi
3410 Nashville Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$675	$0.96	43d	1	0.58mi
4006 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$695	$0.87	44d	1	0.63mi
3116 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	43d	1	0.66mi
3211 35th St Unit E Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	43d	1	0.68mi
3211 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	13d	1	0.68mi
3016 30th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	947	$975	$1.03	43d	1	0.72mi
4407 31st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	21d	1	0.78mi
3506 Peoria Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	13d	1	0.81mi
3114 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	43d	1	0.82mi
4103 17th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	996	$675	$0.68	21d	1	0.86mi
2818 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,125	$1.08	21d	1	0.86mi
3107 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	21d	1	0.87mi
4124 18th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$925	$0.91	43d	1	0.88mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	21d	1	0.88mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	21d	1	0.89mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.89mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	13d	1	0.95mi
4206 17th St Unit 3 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	21d	1	0.97mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	21d	1	0.98mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	43d	1	0.98mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	13d	1	1.00mi
2723 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$950	$1.18	21d	1	1.08mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	13d	7	1.08mi
2816 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	826	$825	$1.00	21d	1	1.12mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	21d	1	1.14mi
2701 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$1,195	$1.49	13d	1	1.17mi
2602 28th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	937	$1,095	$1.17	21d	1	1.17mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	21d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-25
   listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,506
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $427
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$102
• After-tax cash flow: $1,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,137
• Household income: $44,537
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.78%
• Current HPI: 272.7482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $105,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,506 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.