103 Full Cir · Davis, CA 95618

$219,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market

Built 1974 $207/sqft · 38% above area Est $159k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A must see! Step into your cozy cottage. A home that welcomes you with plenty of natural light, an inviting layout, and offers you the luxury of being move-in ready! This 2 bedroom, 2 bath gem needs no major renovations, as both bathrooms and the kitchen have been custom remodeled. Enjoy the newer interior and exterior paint throughout, upgraded double pane windows, complete with a welcoming front porch that makes this home even more inviting. The exterior has a double driveway, low maintenance yard and a newer Rubbermaid shed. There is an attached porch/sunroom that is bright and cheery with windows all around that offer a view of the beautiful outdoor landscape. The house includes all m

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Double driveway
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CUSTOM REMODELED BATHROOMS
• CUSTOM REMODELED KITCHEN
• UPGRADED DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• DOUBLE DRIVEWAY
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 1.9% in Davis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in CA, #2,713 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Davis Joint Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #28 of 517 in CA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 721 units permitted in Yolo County in 2024 (260 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yolo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.38%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,162
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 37.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
218 Full Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$146,000	$138	91
156 Inner Cir	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	22mo	$88,000	$76	62
110 Full Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	933 (-12%)	16mo	$240,000	$257	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-12,318
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $164
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95618

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $631	-5% $555	+0% $479	+5% $404	+10% $328
Rent	-10% $280	-5% $380	+0% $479	+5% $579	+10% $679
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $535	base $479	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2505 5th St Davis, CA	3.0	2.5	1459	$3,153	$2.16	44d	1	0.21mi
2505 5th St Davis, CA	1.0	1.0	712	$1,908	$2.68	18d	1	0.21mi
771 Pole Line Rd Davis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,995	$2.66	44d	2	0.22mi
709 Adeline Pl Davis, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,400	$2.72	15d	1	0.28mi
709 Adeline Pl Davis, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,890	$2.31	5d	1	0.28mi
1805 E 8th St Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,995	$2.35	24d	3	0.37mi
1615 E 8th St Davis, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	865	$1,645	$1.90	4d	6	0.46mi
1143 Greene Ter Davis, CA	2.0	2.0	946	$2,850	$3.01	22d	1	0.53mi
2200 Whittier Dr Davis, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	44d	1	0.58mi
516 K St Unit A Davis, CA	3.0	1.0	940	$2,300	$2.45	8d	1	0.64mi
516 K St Unit C Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	8d	1	0.64mi
2701 Lillard Dr Davis, CA	3.0	2.0	1425	$3,200	$2.25	44d	1	0.68mi
300 J St Davis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	660	$2,245	$3.40	2d	16	0.73mi
1280 Olive Dr Davis, CA	1.0	1.0	724	$2,295	$3.17	21d	1	0.73mi
505 I St Davis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	675	$2,100	$3.11	44d	3	0.79mi
717 I St Davis, CA	3.0	2.0	1172	$3,650	$3.11	18d	1	0.80mi
401 I St Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	785	$1,995	$2.54	5d	1	0.80mi
1540 Valdora St Davis, CA	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.0	1225	$2,199	$1.80	13d	38	0.80mi
1880 Cowell Blvd Davis, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,499	$2.31	44d	1	0.83mi
1880 Cowell Blvd Davis, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,399	$2.61	18d	1	0.83mi
1100 Olive Dr Unit 236 Davis, CA	2.0	2.0	1033	$3,085	$2.99	44d	1	0.88mi
1617 Valdora St Davis, CA	3.0	3.0	1450	$3,395	$2.34	8d	1	0.90mi
1660 Drew Cir Davis, CA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1262	$1,894	$1.50	12d	32	0.92mi
801 2nd St Unit 301 Davis, CA	1.0	1.5	1259	$3,000	$2.38	44d	1	0.94mi
1659 Drew Cir Davis, CA	3.0–4.0	2.0	1293	$1,100	$0.85	2d	23	0.95mi
1736 Valdora St Davis, CA	3.0	2.0	987	$3,400	$3.44	5d	1	0.99mi
3028 Bryant Pl Davis, CA	1.0	1.0	1380	$850	$0.62	8d	1	1.01mi
811 F St Davis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$2,595	$3.15	15d	1	1.02mi
514 10th St Unit 516 Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,950	$2.44	13d	1	1.08mi
647 D St Unit 408-A Davis, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	11d	1	1.11mi
3820 Chiles Rd Davis, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$3,140	$3.16	44d	1	1.11mi
1703 Donner Ave #3 Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,100	$2.33	44d	1	1.12mi
4005 Cowell Blvd Davis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,400	$2.86	2d	7	1.15mi
311 7th St Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,099	$2.80	44d	1	1.18mi
2810 Pole Line Rd #3 Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,350	$2.60	15d	1	1.19mi
2861 Bidwell St #4 Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	819	$2,050	$2.50	18d	1	1.21mi
2390 Roualt St Davis, CA	3.0	2.0	1235	$3,400	$2.75	18d	1	1.23mi
2842 Bidwell St Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,995	$1.97	8d	1	1.23mi
4141 Cowell Blvd Davis, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,395	$2.86	5d	6	1.28mi
207 3rd St Unit 320 Davis, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,995	$3.99	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $219,000 Pending 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $219,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $219,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $219,000 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $2,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$578
• After-tax cash flow: $5,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davis Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0610620
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $58,551
• Composite: 70.5/100
• National rank: #261
• State rank: #28 of 517 in CA

Livability — Davis

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #2713

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Davis, CA
• County: Yolo County · 212,115 people
• City population: 79,897
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,267
• Household income: $115,591
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1441.0

Population outlook (Yolo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,183 people
• By 2030: 257,662 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 288,050 · +18.9%
• By 2050: 318,202 · +31.4%
• By 2075: 392,736 · +62.2%
• By 2100: 438,150 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Asian 24% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 10% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Yolo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.2) · D 66.3% · R 30.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: 0.0pp no change · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.2 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+33.2 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -545.15%
• Current HPI: 291.2054
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.92%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B