Lincoln Plan · Ocala, FL 34480

$213,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,672 sqft · Townhouse · 245 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing a seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Gathering room
• Kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED LANAI
• INDOOR-OUTDOOR DINING
• GATHERING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• NOOK

🏗️ New construction. The $213,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $218,902.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $214k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-426/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Ocala Elementary School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 715 students, 60% FRL); Osceola Middle School (math 60% / reading 58%, grade B, #144 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 999 students, 44% FRL); Forest High School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,325 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 350 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $187,001 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,902
• List price: $213,990
• Delta: -2.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3633 SE 37th Ave Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,682 (+1%)	2mo	$220,000	$131	89
3517 SE 37th Ct	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,707 (+2%)	9mo	$217,000	$127	87
3483 SE 37th Ct	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,708 (+2%)	10mo	$209,900	$123	86
3594 SE 37th Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,714 (+2%)	10mo	$207,080	$121	85
3617 SE 37th Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,707 (+2%)	7mo	$225,080	$132	84
3534 SE 37th Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,710 (+2%)	13mo	$201,080	$118	83
3522 SE 37th Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,707 (+2%)	14mo	$227,485	$133	82
3532 SE 37th Avenue Rd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,707 (+2%)	19mo	$224,994	$132	77
3452 SE 37th Avenue Rd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,707 (+2%)	22mo	$220,000	$129	75
3500 SE 37th Avenue Rd	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,782 (+7%)	23mo	$283,994	$159	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-38,003
• Equity at exit: $32,639

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-37,116
• Equity at exit: $18,927

Cash invested: $61,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34480

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,284/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $213,769

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $40	+0% $-35	+5% $-111	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-109	+0% $-35	+5% $38	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $20	base $-35	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,725
• Closing costs: $6,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3339 SE 37th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	1828	$1,900	$1.04	15d	1	0.04mi
3488 SE 37th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	1708	$1,800	$1.05	23d	1	0.08mi
3663 SE 37th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$1,825	$1.07	23d	1	0.20mi
3674 SE 37th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	1708	$1,800	$1.05	15d	1	0.21mi
3700 SE 34th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,050	$1.36	23d	1	0.39mi
4549 SE 25th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,850	$1.24	23d	1	0.98mi
2700 SE 35th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1977	$2,500	$1.26	23d	1	1.00mi
4861 SE 31st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,700	$1.15	23d	1	1.18mi
4760 SE 30th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,500	$0.99	23d	1	1.20mi
1311 SE 39th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	2121	$2,500	$1.18	15d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $213,990 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $213,990 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $213,990 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,990 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $213,990 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $213,990 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $213,990 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $213,990 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $213,990 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $213,990 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $213,990 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $213,990 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $213,990 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,990 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,990 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,990 Active 223 DOM
17. 2026-03-18
    price $210,990 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing a seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

18. 2026-02-13
    status Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing a seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

19. 2026-01-06
    historical 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing a seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

20. 2025-12-09
    price $215,990 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing a seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

21. 2025-09-11
    listed $212,990 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    The first level of this two-story townhome features an open-concept design, allowing a seamless transition between the gathering room, kitchen and nook. A covered lanai offers convenient indoor-outdoor dining and entertaining, while three bedrooms and a loft occupy the second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,262
• − Property taxes: −$3,284
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$6,368
• Taxable loss: −$4,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$998
• After-tax cash flow: $572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained landscape can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,517
• Household income: $77,557
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.60%
• Current HPI: 212.4262
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.84%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $210,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $215,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-11 Listed $212,990 Zillow