425 Knob Hill Dr · Jackson, MS 39209

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1964 10,018 sqft lot $113/sqft · 154% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

425 Knob Hill Drive - 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms Welcome to 425 Knob Hill Drive, a beautifully maintained home offering comfort, style, and everyday functionality. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is perfect for families, first-time buyers, or anyone looking for a move-in-ready property. Step inside to a bright and inviting layout designed for both relaxation and entertaining. The highlight of the home is the beautiful kitchen, featuring brand-new appliances, modern finishes, and ample cabinet space--perfect for preparing meals and gathering with family and friends. The spacious primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat, complete with its own private bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing families. With thoughtful updates and a warm, welcoming atmosphere throughout, 425 Knob Hill Drive is ready to be called home. Don't miss this opportunity--schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,458
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 95.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5770 Queen Mary Ln	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,184 (+3%)	1mo	$74,900	$63	71
667 Queen Cir	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,170 (+2%)	1mo	$124,900	$107	62
151 Queen Joanna Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	6mo	$52,900	$42	61
5629 Queen Mary Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+11%)	6mo	$90,000	$71	58
344 Queen Margaret Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	1mo	$74,900	$58	58
135 Queen Anne Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	5mo	$64,900	$52	57
331 Queen Margaret Ln	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,027 (-11%)	7mo	$59,900	$58	56
356 Queen Isabella Ln	0.36mi	3/1.5	996 (-13%)	6mo	$60,000	$60	54
346 Queen Theresa Ln	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	4mo	$64,600	$61	52
506 Lowder Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,318 (+15%)	4mo	$62,500	$47	50
663 Queen Julianna Ln	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,042 (-9%)	2mo	$42,000	$40	48
664 Queen Julianna Ln	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,300 (+13%)	2mo	$65,000	$50	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $82,698
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $234,150
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39209

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,373/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $224	+0% $187	+5% $150	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $135	+0% $187	+5% $239	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $220	base $187	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5629 Queen Mary Ln Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,395	$1.10	15d	1	0.29mi
5301 Queen Mary Ln Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,338	$1.22	15d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $130,000 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-02-25
   listed $130,000 Active 950-char remark

   Show marketing remark (950 chars)

   425 Knob Hill Drive - 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms Welcome to 425 Knob Hill Drive, a beautifully maintained home offering comfort, style, and everyday functionality. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is perfect for families, first-time buyers, or anyone looking for a move-in-ready property. Step inside to a bright and inviting layout designed for both relaxation and entertaining. The highlight of the home is the beautiful kitchen, featuring brand-new appliances, modern finishes, and ample cabinet space--perfect for preparing meals and gathering with family and friends. The spacious primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat, complete with its own private bathroom. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing families. With thoughtful updates and a warm, welcoming atmosphere throughout, 425 Knob Hill Drive is ready to be called home. Don't miss this opportunity--schedule your showing today!

3. 2023-11-21
   historical
4. 2023-10-27
   soldstatus
5. 2023-08-30
   listed $75,000 Active
6. 1996-07-15
   soldstatus
7. 1989-08-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,373 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,373 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,373
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$36
• After-tax cash flow: $2,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,776
• Household income: $36,344
• Rent vs Own: 52.3% rent · 47.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 7% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 312.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+73.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $130,000 MLSU
• 2023-11-21 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-30 Listed $75,000 MLSU
• 1996-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,373 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.