The Mangrove Plan · North Port, FL 34269

$182,988

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 461 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 461 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Listing last modified: 2026-04-28
• Financial info: List price $182,988

Exterior

• Home design: The Mangrove plan (new construction plan); Plan inventory type
• Exterior features: Street address: 12116 SW County Road 769, Lake Suzy, FL 34269

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 1536 (living area provided)

🏗️ New construction. The $182,988 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,616.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($383/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $183k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto (town): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 73 in FL (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 71 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 461 days — a 12% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,029 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 461 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,616
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12116 SW County RD 769 #61	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	4mo	$135,000	$84	66
11808 SW Spring Lake Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-10%)	6mo	$214,900	$156	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-36,761
• Equity at exit: $35,728

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,259
• Equity at exit: $20,718

Cash invested: $67,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34269

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,594/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $239,616

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,904
• Closing costs: $7,188
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12235 SW Kingsway Cir Unit C6 Lake Suzy, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	13d	1	1.10mi
11644 SW Egret Cir Lake Suzy, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1249	$3,550	$2.84	21d	4	1.12mi
25748 Deep Creek Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	2195	$2,300	$1.05	13d	1	1.16mi
212 Boa Vista St Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	3.0	2065	$3,500	$1.69	13d	1	1.23mi
25599 Deep Creek Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1806	$1,995	$1.10	13d	1	1.26mi
25583 Deep Creek Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,300	$1.27	13d	1	1.28mi
25230 Campos Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,750	$1.20	21d	1	1.28mi
175 Kings Hwy Unit A8 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,700	$1.38	21d	1	1.46mi
26416 Deep Creek Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,650	$0.95	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,988 Active 461 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,988 Active 460 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,988 Active 459 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,988 Active 458 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $182,988 Active 456 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,988 Active 455 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $182,988 Active 453 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,988 Active 452 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,988 Active 451 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $182,988 Active 450 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $182,988 Active 445 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,988 Active 444 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,988 Active 443 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $182,988 Active 442 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,422
• − Property taxes: −$3,594
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,051
• − Management: −$2,051
• − Depreciation: −$6,971
• Taxable loss: −$3,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$876
• After-tax cash flow: $1,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto
• NCES district ID: 1200420
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,136
• Composite: 26.03/100
• National rank: #7305
• State rank: #69 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 75,324
• Population (ZIP): 5,111

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,958 people
• By 2030: 34,465 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 33,137 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 31,273 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 23,898 · -31.6%
• By 2100: 15,517 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 28.2% · R 71.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+27.7 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.77%
• Current HPI: 297.0303
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B