2036 S Mobile Estates Dr · Gulf Gate, FL 34231

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1987 3,625 sqft lot $215/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy Sarasota living in this beautifully maintained 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom mobile home located in a friendly and active 55+ community just minutes from Siesta Key beach. FURNISHED! New bathroom shower 2026, New how water heater (2021), Both bathroom commodes replaced (2021), Durable Pergo laminate flooring throughout (2022), Private fenced in patio area (2021) perfect for privacy and pets. Community amenities include clubhouse, chilled/heated pool, shuffle board and bocce ball courts. Close to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence or seasonal get away, this home offers comfort, convenience and the Florida lifestyle youve been dreaming of.

Key facts

• Shuffle board
• New bathroom shower
• New hot water heater

Tags

• NEW BATHROOM SHOWER
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• PRIVATE FENCED IN PATIO
• CHILLED HEATED POOL
• SHUFFLE BOARD
• BOCCE BALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($366/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Gate Elementary School (math 60% / reading 65%, grade B, #601 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 655 students, 54% FRL); Brookside Middle School (math 62% / reading 55%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 745 students, 66% FRL); Riverview High School (math 61% / reading 65%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,597 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $200k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-36,002
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-50,278
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34231

• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,739/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$215
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,888

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $87	+0% $30	+5% $-26	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-46	+0% $30	+5% $107	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $81	base $30	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $215 · $2,580/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-03-11
   price $199,900 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Enjoy Sarasota living in this beautifully maintained 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom mobile home located in a friendly and active 55+ community just minutes from Siesta Key beach. FURNISHED! New bathroom shower 2026, New how water heater (2021), Both bathroom commodes replaced (2021), Durable Pergo laminate flooring throughout (2022), Private fenced in patio area (2021) perfect for privacy and pets. Community amenities include clubhouse, chilled/heated pool, shuffle board and bocce ball courts. Close to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence or seasonal get away, this home offers comfort, convenience and the Florida lifestyle youve been dreaming of.

3. 2026-01-24
   listed $210,000 Active 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Enjoy Sarasota living in this beautifully maintained 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom mobile home located in a friendly and active 55+ community just minutes from Siesta Key beach. FURNISHED! New bathroom shower 2026, New how water heater (2021), Both bathroom commodes replaced (2021), Durable Pergo laminate flooring throughout (2022), Private fenced in patio area (2021) perfect for privacy and pets. Community amenities include clubhouse, chilled/heated pool, shuffle board and bocce ball courts. Close to shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence or seasonal get away, this home offers comfort, convenience and the Florida lifestyle youve been dreaming of.

4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-12-04
   price $210,000
6. 2025-08-11
   listed $220,000 Active
7. 2013-03-12
   soldstatus $50,000
8. 2012-05-07
   listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,739
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − HOA: −$2,580
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$699
• After-tax cash flow: $1,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gulf Gate

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Gate, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,404
• Household income: $69,925
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1983.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -448.92%
• Current HPI: 292.9055
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.13%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+166.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-12 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-07 Listed $74,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,739 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.